Follow The Money | August 26, 2026 | Hour 2

**SPEAKER_3** (0:04)
This is Follow The Money with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard on VSiN.

**Mitch Moss** (0:11)
Thanks for watching, as always, on YouTube TV, listening to SiriusXM Channel 158, iHeartRadio, TuneIn Radio, or any of our great affiliates from across the country, Mike Palm in studio coming up in 15 minutes. Are we making a mistake by not betting Shohei Otani to win the NL MVP right now plus money? And as I say that right now, PCA is coming to the plate for the Cubs and that score is Zilchow.
Another team has scored so far and they are playing in the top of the sixth already. Mike, what? This game is flying by.
And PCA, is that fair? It is. That's going to be a double the way it looks. To lead off the ending. He might go for it. No, he's not. Okay. That's going to be a double. And now we'll see if PCA tries to steal third. There we go. All right, Pauly. Yesterday, we went over to discuss Bill Barnwell's top five teams to be on the rise this year in the NFL. Today, the top five teams to come back to the pack. And you said this yesterday over the years that he's been doing this to win totals, what, 15-36?

**Pauly Howard** (1:09)
Since 2017, the declined column has gone 34-9 at picking teams that will fall short of the win total from the previous season. The improved declined columns overall are 69-17, 80%.

**Mitch Moss** (1:26)
But 34-9 against the...

**Pauly Howard** (1:29)
59% against the over-unders, archived at Pro Football Reference. The average decline amounts to 3.5 wins per 17 games. Last year again, he went 4-1. The miss was the Colts.
This year, starting off, you know who, the Bears. Last year, 11-6, 7-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer. Projected SOS, 10th, Toughest, the No. 1 regression candidate.
Plus 22 in the turnover differential. League low, 11 turnovers. They forced 33 The Bears were 27th in points allowed per drive on possessions that didn't end with a fumble recovery or an interception.

**Mitch Moss** (2:15)
Oh, that's incredible.

**Pauly Howard** (2:16)
They also recovered 67% of the fumbles in their games. Highest rate in the league.

**Mitch Moss** (2:22)
The exact opposite of the Lions yesterday.

**Pauly Howard** (2:25)
Yes.
23 teams have posted a fumble recovery rate of 65% or more in any given season since 1990 Those teams went and 23 at replicating that the following season. Collectively recovering 49% of the fumbles.

**Mitch Moss** (2:42)
Those are incredible numbers. And their win total, by the way, is 9.5.

**Pauly Howard** (2:48)
We've talked about many times. They also set an NFL record for wins when trailing with less than two minutes left in the game. Out here, the miracle against the Raiders, the miracle against Washington, the defense blew it. But the comeback against Cincinnati, they were down 10 with six minutes left against the Giants.
They were down with 50 seconds left against the Vikings. They were down 16 to six in the fourth quarter against the Packers in one. And we know what happened in the playoffs as well. So we've been over this one several times. It seems easy, right?

**Mitch Moss** (3:22)
What if everybody's right about the Bears?

**SPEAKER_3** (3:23)
Or most people are right about the Bears.

**Mitch Moss** (3:24)
But the offense is too good? No, no, no. What if they're right about the number one regression candidate? I'm talking about in this division specifically.

**Pauly Howard** (3:32)
Then the door's really open for the Vikings.

**Mitch Moss** (3:35)
I think if people are right about the Bears, I think the one bet to make would be the Vikings in the division. And this is coming from a guy who has been ultra high in the Lions since like March.

**Pauly Howard** (3:44)
Well, the comeback is they're going to be so good offensively. But again, I'm also concerned with all the injuries on defense. Number two, Denver Broncos, 14 and three last year, nine and two in games decided by seven points or fewer, plus 90 point differential. SOS 15th easiest. The defense did struggle late in the season and also when they played good teams, they got clocked a couple of times. But you add Waddle, Webb supposed to be a genius, helping out with the play calling, tough schedule.
But here's what Barnwell writes, they were second in the NFL and points allowed per possession through their bye week 11 The next four games, it got ugly. Couldn't stop Mariotta. Couldn't stop almost lost to the Raiders. Couldn't slow down Green Bay. Got blown out at home by Jacksonville. They fell to 21st.