False Breakout? Or Is A Wave Of New Market Highs Ahead? | Michael Lebowitz

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I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it wasn't.

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**Michael Lebowitz** (1:31)
I suspect that we'll probably fall a little bit more, test that old resistance line, then we'll see whether we were back off to the races or if this, we're just going back into the consolidation, this was a breakout, similar to the breakout on the downside we had in mid-late June.

**Adam Taggart** (1:58)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcome you here at the end of the week for another weekly Market Recap. This time, I'm sure you're glad to hear with Michael Lebowitz. Lance Roberts is, I don't know, off doing something drunk under a table. Who knows with that, Texan?

**Michael Lebowitz** (2:15)
Maybe he's going back to MMA fighting. Who knows?

**Adam Taggart** (2:18)
Who knows? Maybe. Yeah, exactly. Maybe he's coming back for his come-back round at the ripe young age of 61 or whatever. He's going to come challenge the title again. What was that? Was it the theme of like Rocky 6 or something like that?

**Michael Lebowitz** (2:32)
10, 12 So good for you, Adam. You've had two weeks off of Lance.
That's a nice break for you.

**Adam Taggart** (2:40)
It's funny. Jokes aside, I don't think I've had two weeks off of Lance for three plus years.

**Michael Lebowitz** (2:48)
Wow.

**Adam Taggart** (2:49)
Yeah, yeah. And as a reminder to folks, main reason for that is I was away last week, and it was a rare week away from the computer. Again, I don't think I've done that, Michael, for at least half a decade. And that was pretty wonderful. And it'll be a bit of the topic of today's rant, which will be a nice positive one. All right, Michael, but a lot going on here. And why don't we start with the news of the day, which was the payrolls report, which disappointed, a surprise disappointment. Payrolls were down. I'm doing this from memory, but I think about 23,000 or so. And it was a five sigma miss, meaning pretty much nobody had a drop like that on their dance card.
And we're seeing a response in the market today. Basically, as the market says, well, okay, then maybe we've been concerned about the Fed hiking rates. This maybe makes it likelier that the Fed is not going to hike or not going to hike as much. So we're seeing bond yields come down a bit. We're seeing the price of precious metals jump here. Who knows what kind of legs this will have, but that's the initial knee-jerk reaction to this.
What are your thoughts on this, Michael?
As we've seen in past years, not just Trump, but Biden years, this miss comes with a lot of downward revisions to the previous numbers, which indicate that the labor market probably isn't quite as healthy or as robust as we've been sold that it is. Although interestingly, due to a quirk of accounting, the unemployment rate dropped. Even though the payroll numbers were weak, the unemployment rate dropped down to 4.1%, which is quite low by historic levels. So what do you think about this? How significant is this miss?