Europe Is About To Print

Nik Bhatia (0:00)

A shocking move higher in French government bond yields. There is a sovereign debt crisis developing in France right now. The Euro currency continues to fall versus the dollar. How is all of this going to affect liquidity and Bitcoin?

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Layer. I'm Nik Bhatia. I want to get right to this French to German sovereign debt yield spread. And what you see on this chart is a massive blowout of French yields versus German bond yields. Now remember, all sovereign debt yields have been moving higher this year.

The US. Treasury yield way above 5 percent. UK guilt yields skyrocketing this year. French government bond yields skyrocketing. German bond yields increasing, but this French to German spread, it's very alarming. There is something serious going on in the European bond markets. I am watching very closely for a European print right now. There is a pressure lower on the euro, which suggests to me that Europe is not stepping in here to defend its currency. It might be stepping in to defend its bond market and letting its currency go. But right now, it's the bond market that is going south, yields skyrocketing higher in France, something that we will be watching every single hour that the French government bond market is open until we start to hear those trial balloons, those whispers of European money creation events going on, either from the ECB or elsewhere in Europe, such as the Bank for International Settlements, headquartered in Switzerland. Let's keep our eye on these European bond markets, not just watching your US Treasury yields head higher and think about them in isolation. No, we're looking for where the pressure is the most acute, and right now, I believe it is France. How does this all affect liquidity and Bitcoin? That's where we come in at the Bitcoin Layer. Make sure you guys go to the bitcoinlayer.com and check out our TBL Liquidity Index, which we have here completely for free, available to everybody, the bitcoinlayer.com for free access to our TBL Liquidity Index. And it's through our index that we measure conditions for Bitcoin. What is sending stocks higher or lower? What is sending Bitcoin higher or lower? Oftentimes, there are factors within the treasury market, the currency market that are dictating the way that these risk markets move, especially Bitcoin. But we are advancing our analysis to the next level. We are combining our TBL Liquidity Signal with Johan Bergman, our Head of Bitcoin Research, his Bitcoin State Grid in which we identify Bitcoin's place on both trend and valuation, trying to assess where Bitcoin is in its bull or bear market cycles.

Now, we are not talking about four-year cycles here in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin goes through bull and bear moves. Every few months, it's changing regimes. Sometimes, you get a long bull, a long bear, with many bulls and bears in between. We are trying to understand where Bitcoin is on both trend and valuation to give us a sense, is this a bear market rally or a true bull market that is emerging? Now, I want to bring you to the place where we are conducting this analysis, and I want to make one quick note before we do that, which is that TBL Pulse, our beautiful data terminal that is available to all TBL pros, it has a lot of information. We are doing our best to synthesize that information and bring it to you in a condensed high signal way so that you are not having to look for the most high signal charts, rather they appear to you. So that's a process that we are working on, but we continue to add information here and you might have trouble finding that information, so we are here to show you where exactly it is and where I want to point you to today.

Johan Bergman just published his latest Bitcoin is pinned between 78 and 85,000 and the options data leans toward another leg up that just was delivered to the inbox of TBL pros. Make sure you go read Johan every single Wednesday. Important information as he brings to you this concept of the state grid, where we are and what that means about where Bitcoin is heading next, giving us a sense of, again, you can observe the price, the price is going up, price is going down, but is that bull move in the context of a larger bear market or is it the beginning of a larger bull move? That's the information that we're trying to cross with TBL liquidity, which uses 100% non-Bitcoin information. TBL liquidity sources its data from global markets, from US Treasury and US dollar markets, from the banking system, not from Bitcoin at all. Whereas Johan's information is combining on-chain data, flows data, exchange data, and options data to give us a sense of Bitcoin's endogenous factors. So you have the endogenous with Johan, the exogenous with TBL liquidity. Now we are combining them. Before we go into the combination of these two, I want to show you a couple charts from around TBL pulse to give you an idea of where some of this really important information is. And part of that analysis that we've been doing is which charts are you looking at at home? So we now have the statistics of which charts are the most popular from you, the users. I'm going to read to you some of the charts on that list and then show you how to find them. We did several episodes this summer on the cold card incident. And a lot of you have been rethinking your setup ever since. My takeaway is that self-custody works and it's best when no single device or vendor carries all the weight. CASA, today's sponsor, secures your Bitcoin with five keys instead of one. And it's held on hardware from different manufacturers plus your phone. And CASA holds one key for recovery. No single vendor can touch your funds and neither can CASA because moving funds takes three keys and CASA only has one. Their most popular offering, CASA Premium, they ship an onboarding kit right to your house with the hardware devices, the Faraday bags and everything else that you will need. They pair you with an advisor who will walk you through the setup on a call. And the security advisory team is available for you for as long as you are a member. Check out CASA at casa.io and use code TBL for 10% off of your subscription. Of course, our top two charts are TBL Liquidity Index, which again, available to everybody for free at thebitcoinlayer.com. And then of course, our TBL Liquidity Cycle. This is our buy-sell indicator that oscillates every few months. But our goal is to give you that shorter-term impulse on the markets. Zooming out, we are going to definitely rely on Johan's state grid to give us more of a sense of zoomed out, where is Bitcoin in a bull or a bear, but then zoomed in, what are the conditions on the market. So these are our top two most popular charts. And then of course, our next most popular are our relative returns and Johan's state grid. We'll get into the state grid here in a little bit, but this relative returns is a very popular chart. I love it too.