Establish The Edge Simulcast - ETE Projections Special: AFC North with Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller and Ben Gretch

**Luke** (0:01)
Hey, producer Luke here, long time editor, first time speaker.
The following is a simulcast episode from the Establish The Edge Podcast division by division projection series, featuring Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. To hear the rest of the series, you can find the ETE podcast on all good podcast platforms or on the Establish The Edge YouTube channel. Enjoy.

**Mark Dankenbring** (0:33)
Hello, and welcome to another edition of Establish The Edge Podcast. I'm your host, Mark Dankenbring. We'll be joined today by the Projections crew you know and love, Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. Jack and I are part of the Projections team here at Establish The Run, entering our fourth year together. While Gretch is our honored guest throughout this series, you can listen to his podcast, Sealing Bananas with Sean Siegel, as well as find his work at bengretch.substack.com. We'll continue to go division by division through the NFL, breaking down our season long projections for each team across the league today. And today is episode six featuring the AFC North. Gretch, how's it going today?

**Ben Gretch** (1:11)
Good. Yeah, we were pretty stoked at the beginning of the NFC North pod, really fun division. It's kind of an imbalanced year for the different divisions. Like there's some divisions that are super fun.
And this one has the Steelers and the Brands.

**Mark Dankenbring** (1:26)
Lots of turnover in this division as well. Three new head coaches, meanwhile Bangles running it back. But Jack, you excited to break down the AFC North?

**Jack Miller** (1:35)
Not as excited as I was yesterday. Echoing what Gretch said, the whiplash going from NFC North to AFC North is pretty fierce. But we're here and I'm excited to break it down with you guys.

**Mark Dankenbring** (1:47)
Yeah, always some valuable stuff to do on earth here. And we are going to start in Pittsburgh where the Steelers bring in Mike McCarthy to be the head coach. And we're going to be reuniting with Aaron Rodgers. Pretty interesting stuff. We got Mike McCarthy and Todd Monkin as new head coaches in this division. And then Jesse Minter is kind of like a young up and comer as well. So two, I guess, new but old head coaches here, one being in Pittsburgh with Mike McCarthy obviously had some time in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers. And we're starting with the Steelers because at ETR, we've been well above market on a lot of Steelers players this offseason. We honestly wanted to jump right in and kind of discuss our viewpoints and compare with Gretch and just see kind of, you know, if we feel confident in that coming out of this show as well. It's a spot we spent a lot of time on already this postseason.
On a team level standpoint here for the Steelers, we're at 60.2 plays, Gretch is at 60.5, and then we're at a 61.1% pass rate, Gretch is at 61%.
So, essentially, in lockstep there on the team level inputs, that 60.2 plays per game right now ranks 30th in the NFL. For us, last year, they finished 27th, and then our pass rate, 61.1%, is the 12th highest projection we have across the league. So, Jack, you know, I mentioned we've spent a lot of time kind of on the Steelers so far this offseason. What's your read on Mike McCarthy at the helm here, reunited with Aaron Rodgers?

**Jack Miller** (3:13)
Yeah, so like you said, we've been high on the Steelers all offseason, but I don't think it's because we're particularly aggressive on the actual Steelers' inputs. I think it's just the market is really negative on them. We have them for the second fewest real plays per game that excludes spikes and kneel downs. Last year, they had the fifth fewest. We have them 12th in drop back rate. Last year, they were 12th in drop back rate, and we have them with the seventh fewest offensive touchdowns per game, which is in line with their expectation in the betting markets right now. So I think that our Steelers' inputs are pretty reasonable, and it's good to see Gretch. I mean, we are pretty much right in line. I mean, we're 0.3 plays per game off, 0.1% pass rate off. I assume that's basically as close as we're going to be on any team from a team level standpoint throughout this whole series.
But yeah, I want to echo that our pro Steelers stands in our rankings, I think, is more a reflection of where the market is and how negatively the market is viewing them, as opposed to us being actually bullish on the Steelers' offense.

**Mark Dankenbring** (4:17)
Yeah, I think it probably comes back to Aaron Rodgers entering his age 43 season here. So hard to have, I think, too much confidence on an age 43 quarterback here. Gretch, what's your overarching view on the Steelers and Mike McCarthy in town here?