Episode 956: Korea Is About to Change. Everyone Overbets Their Edge. Hynex Stock Long, CAPR

**Martin** (0:00)
Replimune is down on these briefing documents. Most people thought it would be down more.
It's only down 20%.
FDA, very, very critical of Replimune. Good morning, everybody.
Memory trade, very stressed. Korea is out.
Out in the dumps. Korea and Japan dumped very hard last night, leading everyone to wonder what would happen in the US. Does the tail wag the dog? Or will the dog wag the tail? Find out today.
Out in the dumps. It's the billion dollar question, right? I don't think go TLK is long. Do a small rally here. First thing you got to do is not panic, he says while screaming.
First thing, just don't panic.
If you panic, it knows. It can smell it. It can taste your fear. Don't panic. I think, you know, CAPR is basically done, right? I mean, it's not too far from cash value. I don't think anything's going to happen to the adcom that'll make it a miracle or something, but it's basically over. It's over. And FDA looks like it's standing on business on RepliMuN, which everyone on Wall Street is trading this morning. Pretty wild ride on these briefing documents.
Starts the day at $8.75, trades all the way down to $4.25.
Now is it $6.65. I always wanted my friend Amjad to buy RepliMuN so he could have the ticker REPL, because it's like his company Replit. If you know Replit, all right. Looking at an old app I made, old Express app. Let me see if I can get this thing to run. NPM start.
Nice. Local host. $3,000, I'm guessing. No, $4,000. Which route? Ah, yes, here. All right, let's see what's going on at most. Big gainers, not many.
Equivia, Thompson Reuters, Unilever, losers, RepliMuN, Corning. Let me see if I can get this thing to work.
Hold on. Hold on. There it is. There's a big earthquake in Japan. Or was it in Asia, Taiwan? I'm not sure where it was, actually. Good morning. Revolution probably get approved any day now. I'm not sure it matters what specific day they get approved, though. I mean, it's kind of whatever, you know? Look at this RepliMuN. Terrible strength. I think a lot of people just thought it was an easy short and got in, but it kind of is an easy short of an FDA. It's pretty explicit here. It ain't happening, homie. You gotta run a new trial. You got nine minutes, the market opens. Yeah, I agree with you, DeRog. We're gonna change that. I don't think Iovance is affected at all. Corning just smoked, so does Amcor, Sanmina. Kind of a bad day for tech. What's going on with Alkermes? Alkermes bad quarter? I wish it was short Tommies. Yeah, I'm probably gonna work on Ten Axe today, as well as some of the other stuff that'll be coming out in the next few weeks. Yeah, is that what's going on with Alkermes? Yeah. Is that why we're down? Bad news from the other sectors? I don't know. I'm not gonna work on Q.
I've already said Q is, wanna be Zolair? How bad do you wanna be Zolair, man? Zolair's generic. Yeah, maybe it is fairly valuable. I like it. Yeah, I heard you the first million times. I'm sure they want it to be a better Zolair, but it's not. Works the same way. It's about better. Office tour, how? How would I give you an office tour? It's MiHo. I don't know who MiHo is. Hiker Cut on Wednesday. I don't think they have to do either, right? Why? Roche is a huge drug company. Why wouldn't they have 100,000 people? A global company in every country. Could they be leaner? Maybe. You know, they are a specialty company. They can probably get away with 20,000 people or something. Isn't trading a waste of time? Well, I'm so glad you asked that because I came up with this thing called Kelly. I don't want to show it to you. Actually going to adjust it later today, but here's what it looks like. All right. So this is a coin. It has a 60-40 probability of landing on heads. How much do you want to bet? Your bankroll is $25.
How much do you bet each time? Do you go all in? I bet you want to go all in. Let's see what happens if we go all in. Go all in each time. Well, you know what's going to happen. One of the times you're going to flip and you're wrong. So you might get a couple flips right in a row, four, but you're eventually going to go broke. So all right, maybe 80% of your money? Nope, pretty bad as well. Made it five flips, three flips, 28 flips. Went broke anyway.