Episode 1050: How I Lost Big Shorting Kodiak. Open AI Going Public. Why Most Financial Models Fail
The Shkreli Pill
October 1, 2026
In this episode, Martin reflects on a costly short position in Kodiak Sciences and examines what went wrong with the trade, including the risks of conviction, timing, and unexpected catalysts.
Speakers Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli (0:00)
Keith had a promising career as a financial analyst. He started with Shkreli and rose the ranks of Citadel till he became a vice president, making $2 million a year. But one day, his portfolio manager said something rude. Why don't we own any AMD? Keith had a choice, keep it real, or take the insult and move on.
Keith decided to keep it real. Keith used the N-word with the hard R.
Citadel HR department was watching the whole time. Keith was carried out by security. They took his portfolio, his bonus, and everything else. And they told all of Wall Street not to hire Keith. Today, Keith smokes a pig in an alleyway.
SPEAKER_2 (0:38)
I'm proud of this.
Martin Shkreli (0:39)
Yeah, it's a future documentary. Keith thinks about that moment every day. When asked if he would change a thing, he said, Nah, I'll keep it real. Yeah, I'll keep it real. Yeah, IOVA's dropping. This is, I guess, the support level, as a technical analyst might say. Again, I don't believe in that stuff. I think it's kind of mumbo jumbo. I do believe in price action. I mean, you can't ignore the price action, but I don't think there's any special price or something like that. I mean, volume matters too, to some extent. I mean, you see that big volume at 930, just open. It's certainly interesting that you had a lot of buyers there. So I don't know. Feels like this is like under owned and like guys are gonna want to belong it. So like, I'm not sure, staying short here is that. That wise, hey, I'll look through those new stocks and see if you see any anything good. Okay, so getting back to IOVA, not IOVA, getting back to IVVD.
Yeah, I don't know.
It's a little cheap, but it's also like, maybe I don't understand it.
The, I'm just looking at the numbers. So not catching the fundamental picture of like why this is interesting, if it is interesting at all. I've never had a Turkish hair transplant. I've never been to Turkey. You gather they're known for their transplants, I guess. You can buy more, definitely buy more mongo if you think it's a good idea. Energy fault, secure is new, so let's do developer, okay. No, you don't want to buy more mongo? Too late.
SPEAKER_2 (2:01)
It was going to go lower, so that's, it goes so.
Martin Shkreli (2:04)
Nice, 28 almost. Just click at 328 Yeah, I mean, IVVD looks cheap, it's just a question of like, okay, the whole company is based on COVID, which is this like transient disease. Not really clear. Trump said he will sign a strong executive order on AI. Uh-oh, Dario got to him.
Yeah, I don't know what it means, where he said it, but...
SPEAKER_2 (2:24)
Trump's Speaker. That's a new order. That's a new order.
Martin Shkreli (2:31)
I thought that already happened. Is it a forthcoming one? Yes. I thought that already happened.
SPEAKER_2 (2:35)
It's today.
Martin Shkreli (2:36)
Today? Oh, okay. Cool. Nice job. That every day, we'll be back. Always something moving in the markets. The more names we know, the easier it is to make money. That's why I gave you a long list of names. The chances that you're trading kind of names you don't know, and then all of a sudden, stock you've been trading forever, you know it, like, you have a lot of confidence to go wreck it. And Micron tomorrow will be real interesting. AOI new high of day. This is like a momentum stock. It's kind of a good barometer, quite frankly, for like crazy retail.
It's kind of a co.
Probably a decent short. Chart looks terrible. They kind of make a commodity product, but it's very in need right now. Aderna 197 Yoba looking like a downtrend again. It's a double top, some people say. Head and shoulders, a little dandruff. Let me see if my colleague's here, and then I'll be right back with some more analysis. I don't know, IVVD is tough, cause like if COVID comes back, the stock 10 exits. COVID doesn't come back.
They scrape along the little revenue, but what's the plan? I should talk to the CEO and see what he says. I gangly insist. Now we're done. Derna, blow off top. All right, we'll be back. Coming in. It's like IVV, Iova's gonna be keep climbing here. Never know, though. He's indicator. He's worried about his phone right now.
I mean his old wallet, lost wallet. Watch this explode. Oh, the innuendo. I think it's $3, the cheapest they have. It's like, yeah, the only posts I made are like, yeah, I should make one about Kodiak. This one, I mean, all holes. Beyond, Beyond Meat. No, it's called Bloom Energy. Bloom is just so strong. It's gonna be more and more data centers built. These guys have a solution. It's like a fuel cell thing.
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