Episode 1041: I’m Shorting Chip Stocks： What’s REALLY Happening to Semi Stocks SYRE, Intel

Martin (0:00)

Why is Grail up 35%? Is this the same Grail?

Well, I learned to short stocks when I worked at a hedge fund and started a career in the hedge fund industry, so I don't know what you do, but it hedge funds you short stocks. So there's an adcom for Grail. It's crazy. No one might be in overreaction. Yeah, I know, you mentioned Gardent. I'm just trying to understand what FDA approval means in this context. Intel 121 Yeah, terzepatide is gonna be one of the biggest drugs of all time, of course.

Guy's asking, will ozempic patients move to terzepatide? Yeah, definitely, some of them, new patients especially.

Keith (0:32)

That f**k the idea of us do about at all. No.

Martin (0:36)

About as legit as Josh. Bro, this is so dumb. Keith just guesses as a PM. No zero coherent logic or strategy.

He's making money.

Keith (0:45)

What's that guy's?

Martin (0:46)

Yeah, what's that guy's P&L? Oh, King Louie the 16th. We've been getting on Keith's. Well, listen, I've been guiding him to do more research, but he's usually on a plane going to some M- seeing ringside some MMA fight, so he's busy, okay? Yeah, Trusebotide is Mujaro. That's available.

I think he means Redditor Tide. That's the way I read it.

I thought that was what he meant. I think Keith is just along everything right now. So we're just betting market go up. Which, you know, maybe not the most intelligent thing, but I'm sure Micron, so maybe that offsets it a little bit.

Keith (1:24)

It's like milk and sheep in their butts.

Martin (1:26)

Yeah, I don't know. Micron, there are reports that DRAM prices are dropping.

Keith (1:32)

Oh, yeah.

Cap? Cap?

Martin (1:34)

That's what the kids say.

Keith (1:35)

That cap?

Martin (1:37)

Chad, is that cap?

Keith (1:38)

But Chad, what?

Martin (1:40)

Price dropping would be pretty horrific.

Keith (1:43)

Why would price be dropping? Price is everything to them.

Martin (1:45)

DRAM prices dropping would be really bad.

It means capacity is coming online. Remember, it's a commodity and anybody can make it. If prices drop, it's all over. Now, units are important too.

Keith (1:58)

Units...

Martin (1:59)

AMD is just out, I think. So, there's no position.

Keith (2:04)

So, no shorts.

Martin (2:05)

I'm short Micron though. Yeah, no, of course it takes time to build scale, but CXMT is there, and then you have the memory guys are building capacity out too. It's not like they're out there building new factories.

They want to supply more. Their customers really want to supply more, but it's a very odd situation. Keith and I are going to start a memory company. Why not? But yeah, LAM, LAM is interesting. You need LAM if you want to make memory. Why doesn't Keith want to short AMD with all this long exposure? Great question. That's actually a good question. That's a good idea too. Anybody can say AI boom, let me buy. None of these stocks are cheap. That's the problem. I mean, they're all kind of ridiculously expensive.

I'm in favor of shorting AMD. I like that idea. Low-power DDR RAM. But Taiwan Semi does not have a virtual monopoly. ASML does.

Taiwan has a very solid, no monopoly in a way. They are the go-to place for any large-scale semiconductor manufacturing for sure. But you can make your own foundry. Guys do it all the time. What is Keith AUM? He doesn't really have an AUM. He has position limits, which are now basically, like he's along a million dollars a micron, which I'm sorry, a sand disk, which I don't know, as long as he's making money. But now there's some limit. He can't really go above a million on the position. We used to be 200k, but we loosened it up a little. I don't know if he stole my act.

Keith (3:28)

He stole it.

Martin (3:28)

Novartis kind of came back. I haven't spent much time on QuantConnect, but it looks okay. My favorite books about trading are Trading to Win and the Market Wizard series, which I told Keith to read, but I'm sure he hasn't. Keith's basically a scumbag. Let's keep it real here for a second. I have a story to tell you later. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Why short Micron? DRAM prices might be coming down. That would be extremely surprising. The Acer CEO had a lot of interesting comments. Neo Clouds, I mean, it's hard to... They're hard to understand, you know.

It really depends on your vision for the future of AI. It does seem to me like A6 are a real problem for Neo Clouds, as well as like TPU Clouds.