Episode 1038: What I’m Shorting Today. QCLS： A Disaster From Day One. Nebius, Abivax Stock

Martin (0:00)

Rugged, who rugged you, Frank? I lost money on QCLS.

Sorry, I lost more than you did. Yeah, we'll talk about QCLS as well. Kind of a situation. What's up, Brian? Oh, man. Um, shorting I on Q as well.

They put out this weird press release that there's like a 15% improvement in quantum. Who's the most famous person whose phone number you have?

What kind of loser question is that?

Go make something of yourself. I'm worried about, I don't care about famous people. Why do you care about famous people? Yeah, so the QCLS thing we left, because the, if you look at the equity, there's preferred stock and then there's warrants, and the warrants make it so that basically the common stock is worthless or, you know, can't be valued. And like management just didn't treat the common stock with any respect. So, and we were paid with common stock. So there's no real way for us to take, get any confidence that the common stock was going to be useful. And it was just kind of a, I want to call it a show, but it was just a little bit kind of crappy in general. There wasn't much infrastructure.

There wasn't much support. All in was interesting.

The EAs have taken over. A lot has happened in 10 days. It was pretty peaceful. I mean, I just said, listen, you guys have to kill these warrants because nobody's going to invest in this company. Nobody's going to want to work at this company. And they didn't want to kill the warrants.

So, it's this like weird structured finance thing. Like I...

I don't know if it was a scam from day one. I'm not sure what that means. I'm not sure. Leonard, I lost money on QCLS. Me and my wife bought a bunch of it. And now we're looking at a big loss. So, yeah, we built an actual business.

I mean, it was a start of a business. But listen, you've never built anything in your life. So kiss my ass. You know, at the end of the day.

What's that?

I mean, listen, I'm ready to go at any time. I build real businesses. There you are. Let's see what's going on.

Cori have announced the ATM. Micron 960 now. NVIDIA up as well. Jensen said the chips are going to sell twice as many chips, which between volume and pricing, that sounds like guidance to me. Okay, a lot going on. We got 8R1s reverse merger. AEMD is now public.

Very interesting. We got Nebius, which we're shorting. Nebius announcing price increases on cloud. That is not a surprise. Everyone knows this. In fact, if anything, Nebius is late to the party here.

So a really good short for Nebius, I think. Nebius could be done a lot. Here's Micron just ripping, almost 970 Let's uplighten up into Micron. Marbelle just out of control. Marbelle's been a rocket ship. Nebius just plummeting. Love it. Yeah, Nebius raised prices, but everyone raised prices. Keith did not get liquidated. Keith's been doing great. It's a very solid trader, actually. Wow, Nebius just, whoever's money we took, sorry. Maybe he's still gonna drop, actually. Selling AAOI, which we bought the other day on the Kennebish Code, but bought it on the dip. I've got too much semi-trash in my portfolio. I just thought the Leopold sell-off was, not the Leopold sell-off, sorry, the Daria sell-off. I'm brain-dead right now. Like, my jet lag is the worst I've had it. Micron 975, holy!

So too fast! It's all right. Can't get it perfect, can you? Rather be long than short, let's just say that. It's probably going to 1,500. I mean, 1,100, 1,050, something like that. I just can't predict the macro. I still think semis are gonna keep going. Yeah, stocks only go up exactly. I did not go to Hot Chips, unfortunately. And Keith didn't go to Hot Chips either, because Keith just trades on vibes.

Keith doesn't do any research.

He doesn't make any models. He doesn't talk to any CEOs. He talks to like one other trader, and it's just like, yeah. But you know, the thing about some traders is like, doing all that makes them worse. That's the funniest part about a lot of traders. Like there's some traders I know where like, once they start like, leveling up, and they're like, doing meetings with CEOs and all the stuff, they just, they start losing it. Like I was short CoreWeave, and then I met with management and, you know, I haven't been in the hedge fund for a long time. So like, I don't get insta meetings with CEOs whenever I want. And I met with management at CoreWeave and they told me a good story. I was like, yeah, you know, I'll cover my short. Maybe I'll even go long. Of course, it just gets destroyed right after. Because, you know, in the old days, I would meet with management and I would short during the meeting. Intel has been a rocket. CoreWeave is still dumping, not CoreWeave, Nebius is dumping. Let's go. Yeah, more to say over the QCLS drama. But yeah, ultimately, it's going to sound like a little bit of a thing here. But like, Chelsea and I are, you know, I think, talented management. And they did not find a way to keep us around, which, you know, we we just, you know, we offered lots of solutions, there's just no way to, you know, keep us, which is their problem more than ours. We didn't start the company, you know, we were just hired guns. So for us, you know, getting appointed there meant like we had to get paid in a way that made sense for us, you know, which, you know, I think was not, you know, just not the case. So, you know, the shareholders there did not think that we were worth it.