Emergency Subscriber Call Replay (with Michael Howell, David Trainer, Michael Kramer, and MORE)

George Noble (0:00)

And Anthropic is probably the pinnacle, or what we've been calling the final cash out for this spend without consequence or low cost of capital society.

SPEAKER_2 (0:10)

Basically, liquidity is tightening mainly because the real economies are so strong, and they're just absorbing liquidity. And all money that's anywhere must be somewhere, so if it's in the real economy, it's not in the financial markets. What's backlog and IOU from a company that doesn't have the money to pay you?

What's that worth?

George Noble (0:29)

I feel like I'm the only one asking this question. Everybody's talking about touting these backlogs. Oh really?

SPEAKER_2 (0:33)

Who's it with? OpenAI and Anthropic.

George Noble (0:36)

Oh yeah?

SPEAKER_2 (0:36)

Do they make money?

SPEAKER_3 (0:38)

No? Exactly.

SPEAKER_2 (0:39)

Well, then how are they going to pay you?

SPEAKER_3 (0:45)

This is exactly what I was worried about. You know, as I posted the other day, no election, regardless of the outcome, is going to solve the funding problems for the AI and the data centers. No election outcome is going to improve the liquidity picture.

No election outcome is going to make the MIDI situation all of a sudden get better. The shiny object was the election. People were clean to the statistic that the market goes up 20 out of the last 20 times following midterm elections.

And then also the seasonality.

By the market in November, market tends to do well. I thought that was pretty lazy analysis. And I had made the observation that the government always has their thumb on the scales of the market. They all do it. And whether it's trying to suppress the oil price or promote the equity market.

The incentive to keep oil price suppressed and market up diminishes post-election. And I actually said, hey, it wouldn't surprise me. In fact, I should expect a bounce, but let's see how far it runs. That lasted all of one session. And now we're in a pretty bad place because, you know, seasonally, given where we are during the year, and given the speed with which many stocks have been declining, folks are rapidly giving up their year, their performance. And therefore, I think it's unlikely that what tends to happen, it's unlikely that folks are going to want to commit a lot more risk to sort of defend the market, if you will. So I think the market's in a very bad place. People are on their back foot. And so it's a very dangerous setup. And there were stories coming out today. I guess Mr. Situational Unawareness blew up again. So he's out of business. He should be in jail, actually.