Elon Musk: Optimus 3 Is Coming, Recursive Self-Improvement Is Already Here, and the Singularity | #239

**Peter Diamandis** (0:00)
Thanks for the audience, and as you can see, I'm still trying to monetize Hope.

**Elon Musk** (0:05)
Yeah, you look like you're in great shape.

**Peter Diamandis** (0:07)
I'm doing great.

**Elon Musk** (0:09)
Is there any like sort of youth serum things going on, or what?

**Peter Diamandis** (0:13)
It's our Longevity Xprize. We're getting there, buddy. We're getting there. I think in our last conversation, you're getting on board with the idea of extended longevity, yes?
Yeah. Okay. We'll leave it at that.

**Elon Musk** (0:30)
Some degree. I mean, I don't know if we want to ever want to live forever or whatever, but I think healthspan and not, you know, having an extended period of senescence where you're just drooling on yourself sounds like a good idea. We want to avoid that.

**Peter Diamandis** (0:45)
Yeah. So first off, congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI, ball or move. Going to power humanity's first Dyson swarm. So I'm curious, it truly is. What's your timeline for launching these data centers and how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year? Give us a sense of the speed at which you're going to be making this happen.

**Elon Musk** (1:11)
Yeah, so SpaceX is in the quiet period. I can't actually tell you things that would cause problems.

**SPEAKER_3** (1:25)
Yeah.

**Peter Diamandis** (1:28)
Oh, I'll leave it at that. I appreciate that. But can't wait for the speed. You know, we had a conversation here on Monday with Eric Schmidt and with one of the leads from one of the other hyperscalers. I won't mention who, but I'm curious where you feel we are in recursive self-improvement. Are we there? Do you see GROK doing recursive self-improvement at this point? And what's the timeline for AGI and ASI? Give us a sense of that.

**Elon Musk** (2:03)
Yeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here. You say, if you mean by like recursive self-improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean?

**Peter Diamandis** (2:16)
I do. On the AI software side.

**Elon Musk** (2:26)
I mean, humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. So, you know, every successive model is built by the one before it. So, that is happening to a large degree, but it's not yet fully automated. It may be there at the end of this year, but not later than next year.

**Peter Diamandis** (2:58)
Do you see a hard takeoff at that point?

**Elon Musk** (3:01)
We're in the hard takeoff.

**Peter Diamandis** (3:03)
Okay.

**Elon Musk** (3:04)
Right now.

**SPEAKER_3** (3:05)
Yes.

**Elon Musk** (3:06)
I mean, look at... I mean, at this point, I go to sleep, there's some massive AI breakthrough, and when I wake up, there's another one.

**SPEAKER_3** (3:17)
Yes.

**Elon Musk** (3:20)
Yeah, it's hard to keep track, honestly. It's a bit of a headspinner.

**Peter Diamandis** (3:23)
Yeah. Well, I think a lot of the headspinning is happening from you, too.

**SPEAKER_3** (3:29)
Yeah.

**Elon Musk** (3:31)
Well, Grok is doing pretty well, and by some metrics, it's the best. For example, it's the best at predicting things, which is arguably the best metric for intelligence. The new Grok 4.2 is really good.
We're currently behind on coding. The reason I was a bit late for this was that I was just in a giant sort of all-hands on coding, just going through all of the things that need to happen to essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding, which I think we'll do. I feel we should probably get there by the middle of this year.
I think people don't quite understand just how much intelligence there will be, or just how far it will exceed human intelligence. To a degree, that is impossible to fully understand. But you can totally imagine a situation where we... Let's say a million times more energy is harnessed than all of Earth's current electricity usage. That would still only be roughly a millionth of the Sun's energy output. So, essentially, if you increase Earth's economy by a factor of a million, it's still roughly a trillion. Since we're a trillionth of the Sun's energy, if you increase Earth's economy in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million, you will be roughly one millionth only of the Sun's energy harnessed. But what is an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of Earth's civilization think about or look like or do? It's going to be something pretty magnificent. The challenge will be even vaguely appreciating that level of intelligence. But it's safe to say it will solve everything you can possibly think of. Long trip being, you know, certainly one of them. And I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism.