Earnings Expectations Courting Disaster? | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (1:00)
The thing that worries me though about earnings in general is the expectations going out for the rest of this year and into next year are super high. I mean, we're looking at earnings growth rates, expectations that normally what you see coming out of a recession, not three quarters of the way into an economic expansion.

**Adam Taggart** (1:24)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcome you back here at the end of the week for a very special weekly Market Recap with my very good friend, the sesquicentennial portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:39)
Yes, and I am that old. When me and George Washington were like this, and me and James Madison, we were there signing the decoration. So yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (1:49)
Put a powdered wig on you, Lance. I think you look like a founding father.

**Lance Roberts** (1:53)
Yeah. I work well in the powered wigs.

**Adam Taggart** (1:55)
Yeah.

**Lance Roberts** (1:55)
No problem at all.

**Adam Taggart** (1:57)
Yeah.
Well, you should bring it back, dude. Actually, I think that would probably be miserable to wear in Houston in the summer.

**Lance Roberts** (2:04)
Especially right now. It's interesting where y'all are kind of up Northeast and in Canada, they're having this heat dome.
They're like, it's 95 degrees. It's so hot here. I'm like, dude, come to Texas in August. It's the same as being cremated. But the difference is that it's a humid heat here in Houston, which is worse because it's hot and humid at the same time.

**Adam Taggart** (2:28)
And it just kind of drowns you.

**Lance Roberts** (2:30)
So yeah, I feel for you. If you're up Northeast and you're going through the heat wave, that's why we have air conditioning in Houston.
It's just, it is miserable. And be sure and hydrate. That's the big thing.

**Adam Taggart** (2:44)
All right. Well, and if you're up in the Northeast, don't set your air conditioner any lower than 78 degrees, right?

**SPEAKER_6** (2:51)
Yeah, exactly.

**Adam Taggart** (2:52)
All right. Well, look, Lance, I see you've got a very patriotic motif behind you. Looks slick as usual. I've worked with the special effects team here at Thoughtful Money and I want to show you what we've come up with. So bear with me for a second, my friend. Here we go.
Not quite as slick as your digital background, but we do what we can here.

**Lance Roberts** (3:20)
I think it's fantastic. So congratulations, happy 250th birthday.

**Adam Taggart** (3:26)
So it's a good day. Happy 250th to the great country of America, everybody. All right, well, look, let's jump right in. There's a lot to go through here, Lance, and I wanna work my way to a piece you wrote this week about record retail inflows. Where's all the money coming from?
But let's get there with the week's news. So we got the jobs report this week, and it was weaker than, it was kind of what the market was looking for. It sort of threaded this needle of being weak enough to convince the market that the Fed is not gonna need to hike, but not so weak that people are freaking out about the economy.
So you and I were talking last week about kind of sticking our necks out a little bit, saying that despite his chest-beating on how hawkish he is, we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is, the next thing the Fed's gonna do, we don't know when it's gonna be, but will likely cut, not hike, and the market right now is expecting a hike. And obviously, the jobs market data here sort of adds some validation to what we were saying. How important was this latest jobs report, do you think?