E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more

**Jason Calacanis** (0:00)
So wait a second, you guys, I saw that you were at a COTU conference or a TPG conference, you were at some banking conference, Sacks?

**David Sacks** (0:09)
Brad and I were both at the COTU summit.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:11)
COTU, COTU is a large investor, is it a hedge fund, private equity?

**David Sacks** (0:16)
They're a late stage fund. It's a big late stage fund.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:18)
Summit's a really big word. Was it a summit or was it more like a meeting?

**David Sacks** (0:21)
Well, it's like a two day conference in Santa Barbara.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:26)
Oh, nice.

**David Sacks** (0:27)
They've done a number of years in a row now. Last year, Brian and I went and we met with SBF.
Did I ever tell you that SBF story?

**Jason Calacanis** (0:37)
No, let's go. Who's got crazier hair, you or SBF? Give us a quick take that hat off for a second. Take that Montclair off for a second. Let's get a side by side.
Oh, my God. Sacks is using no product.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:51)
It's not bad.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:53)
It's not that bad. You're starting to look like the emperor, like Senator Palpatine from Star Wars.
I mean, people are having a field day with his crazy hair. But what was the vibe? If you said there was a vibe two years ago, the vibe was crypto mania. SBF was the belle of the ball. I suppose he'll be the belle of the ball when he goes in the Husqow as well.

**David Sacks** (1:12)
I know it looks like he's getting off.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:13)
He's getting up. I thought he was getting off.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:15)
I guess. Is the fix in? Is the Ivy League fixes in? Oh, God.

**David Sacks** (1:18)
I mean, if he gets off.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:20)
Can you imagine if he gets off?

**David Sacks** (1:22)
He's almost as protected as Hunter Biden.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:25)
Here we go.
Okay, everybody. Friedberg's not here this week. Insert jokes and conspiracy theories for the mids.
There's going to be about 8,000 messages on a subreddit about Friedberg missing this week and Sacks missing last week. I'll let you guys all read into it. But what would you say, Brad? Brad Gershner back, of course, fifth bestie. Brad, what would you say the vibe was at this one? If it was SPF, lunacy two years ago, what was the vibe this year?

**Brad Gershel** (1:50)
Well, you know, first, they put on an incredible event. It's called East Meets West.
And it was really about bringing, you know, CEOs and founders from China to the States and connecting them with founders and CEOs in the United States.
Listen, I think it's somber, right? There's a recognition that we've seen about in the public markets, you know, off of this devastation in 2022 But I think, listen, they gave a great tough love speech, discussion with the 1,400 unicorns that are out there. And they said, do not expect your unprofitable tech company to bounce like one of the Magnificent Seven, right? Those are highly profitable companies trading at 19, 20 times earnings. And if you are burning cash today, you can't come back to the well. So you need to either figure out how to get profitable, figure out how to get fit, or you need to sell your business because there's not an endless stream of money. So I thought it was a sober view. Larry Summers was there. And I think a lot of the people who call 22 right were looking for a hard landing in Q1 of this year, probably including Larry was probably more in that camp.
And I think everybody still views this distribution of probabilities over the course of the next four quarters. And whether it's Druckenmiller or Sternlich this morning on CNBC, or whether it's Larry Summers, they're all saying, well, we could 30% chance of a hard landing in Q4 or Q1. So I would say it was sober.

**Jason Calacanis** (3:23)
Yeah, I could tell it was sober, Zacks. Go ahead, you want to say something?

**David Sacks** (3:26)
Well, I would say last year, it was somber in a different way, because you got to remember in the first half of 2022, you had this huge decline in the markets around gross stocks because interest rates had started going up. We had the whole regime change. But I don't think founders had internalized the way that it applied to them. And then the thing that has happened over the past year is that sales have been hit. Every software company that I know is re-forecasting down, it's so much harder to grow. Customers are consolidating vendors, sharpening their pencils.