E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:00)
What are you eating, Friedberg? Is that buffalo jerky? What is that?

**David Friedberg** (0:02)
It's a red pepper.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:03)
It is not the bull tongue.

**David Friedberg** (0:05)
I got pistachios and I got a red pepper.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:08)
Oh, wait, wait, look at this.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:11)
Is that our branded pistachios?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:13)
Aren't these the best pistachios? They're the best.

**David Friedberg** (0:16)
Salt and vinegar, yeah, it's the best.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:18)
Salt and vinegar, yeah, yeah, they're the best. Are those unpeeled pistachios?

**Jason Calacanis** (0:23)
These guys are so rich, people peel their nuts.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:25)
People have been peeling my nuts since the Facebook IPO.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:45)
Hey everybody, welcome to episode 121 of the World's Greatest Podcast, the All-In Podcast with me again.
Of course, the dictator himself, Chamath Palihapitiya, the sultan of science, David Friedberg, and the Rain Man himself, yeah, definitely David Sacks. Gentlemen, how are we doing?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:06)
And you, the world's greatest genuflector.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:09)
Strike, strike, strike. The world's greatest moderator is here.
Oh, you guys, I got to tell you something, the grift is on. A lot of corporate gigs for me to moderate. I don't even have to prepare. I just show up and moderate.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:22)
What is an example of such a gig?

**Jason Calacanis** (1:25)
There's a lot of corporations and conferences that pay a pretty penny to have the world's greatest moderator come and interview people.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:32)
This is like the used car parts Association of America having a convention.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:36)
I did one with like a thousand litigators at an attorney conference for like the SaaS software they all use. And it was a wonderful fireside. You know, it's just great. This is like the grift is on.

**David Sacks** (1:48)
Where do they fly you private?

**Jason Calacanis** (1:50)
It's commercial at this point.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:52)
What does your, what does your rider say? What kind of, do you want, do you ask for spice salted macadamia nuts?

**Jason Calacanis** (1:58)
I do not have them peel my nuts. No.
What I do is I blend the travel costs into the speaking fee. And then nobody knows when I'm in or out, what hotel I'm staying at or whatever. But basically I'm back on the road folks. I'm back on the road.

**David Sacks** (2:12)
Do you get like a trailer or do you get, you know, No, no, no.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:14)
What he's saying is, no, what he's saying is he gets a 25 hundred dollar travel budget and instead he comes the day of and leaves the day of saving and netting himself an extra 2500

**Jason Calacanis** (2:25)
Well, you know, you can optimize if you're saying optimize. I did use I had, you know, during COVID, I racked up a million and a half, two million of these United points. And I have just been grinding those United points down. So shout out to United and the pandemic.
All right. There's a lot of news.

**David Sacks** (2:41)
So you're right, Chamath, it's even worse than that. He's charging them for travel expenses when he's not even paying anything.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:49)
Maybe Jason's part of the grifter is using the cash app to commit fraud and murder.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:53)
Oh, Lord. I mean, that Hindenburg report is, I mean, it's a work of art, but we got to start with the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points. And the general feeling in the country that maybe the Fed doesn't know what they're doing. And maybe it's time for regime change. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Wednesday.
So the Fed has increased the federal funds rate from nearly zero in March of 2022 to now the range of 4.75 to 5% fastest rate hike since the 70s. Speculation the Fed might pause rate hikes or even cut.
Due to the recent banking failures didn't happen. So if you bet that they were going to pause, you were wrong. If you bet they were going to cut, you were also wrong. But the market has ripped a bit a day after, which people are trying to figure out in the group chats. It doesn't seem like anybody has a theory here. But let's start with Sacks. Maybe an explainer a little bit on how the Fed works. There's a board there. People serve a 14-year term.
I guess they replace somebody every two years. And Jerome Powell was placed in 2018 by Trump.
And I guess there's a lot of hand wringing now that they were late on inflation, obviously. And then they went too fast. And maybe now they're not slowing down enough. So what's your take on it objectively, Sacks? Putting aside partisanship and, you know, for this administration versus that administration, just objectively, do they know what they're doing and how could they do a better job?