E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

**Jason Calacanis** (0:00)
Hello, everybody. Welcome. We are live at the All-In Headquarters, and the All-In Podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already. And bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this. Um, but it is an eventful night, and we had to start early, because, uh, it's looking like this could be another shocker. And I am not, uh, being facetious here. I am not, uh, happy about this, obviously. But, uh, Trump looks like he's been underestimated again. This is not a blowout.
Um, we are going live early.
Um, this could be a shocker, folks.
Okay, so, uh, with me early on the pod is regular David Friedberg. Uh, David, you're watching this early action. And what's your early, uh, reaction to what we're seeing?

**David Friedberg** (1:13)
Um, you know, Trump's moved. Trump's moved. There's nothing definitive yet, but, uh, he's moved, uh, in the results and he's moving markets. We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication, um, that Trump has a real shot at winning here. Treasury markets.
And as Phil Hellmuth will share with us, betting markets as well. All right, well, it is more of a nail biter, um, than a game seven of the Warriors Cavs.

**Phil Hellmuth** (1:48)
So this is a hell of a nail. This is a hell of a nail biter, guys, and I'm just going to say this, uh, the UK markets had it first.
They sw- he was five to two, uh, you could, you could get Trump at five to two, two and a half to one. Then it hit five to four. And I thought that was quite crazy. You're watching CNN, you're watching these networks and they're saying, oh my God, Biden's winning this. No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watch a network again on election night. And now the market from five minutes ago, 368 million pounds wagered, 368 million pounds.
Trump is now a three to ten favorite.

**Jason Calacanis** (2:25)
So for people, uh, Phil, who are not gamblers, if you bet three dollars, you bet three dollars.

**Phil Hellmuth** (2:33)
No, no, Jason, you have to understand. If you bet $13, okay, you don't get 13 back, you only get, uh, 10 back.
Now, if you want to bet Biden, it's seven to four. So if I bet $70, uh, if I bet $40, I can get $70 back on Biden. Now the shocker is right around 628 PM, uh, the betting odds, the markets were have been in Biden's favor for three straight months. I've been live posting them on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was, uh, was Trump was, uh, was Biden was minus $1.25, still a big favorite to win. And then boom.
And, uh, you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying. Uh, you know, I'm very much more in the middle of this thing, but all of a sudden, uh, Trump, all of a sudden it was five to four, then it was even. And then all of a sudden Trump was nearly a two to one favorite. I'm getting live information from my friends right now.
Um, I'm seeing that, uh, that it's, uh, it's a little bit lower on some of these sites.
Um, I saw 267 That's for a $200 bet. So he's a pretty big favorite. Um, I saw the lowest I've seen is 217 But Jason, if you're watching the odds and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from, you know, minus $1.70, you know, all the way down minus a 30 Then it came all the way up to minus $1.70. This is crazy. And I've seen this movie before in 2016, actually.

**Jason Calacanis** (4:03)
So we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win, and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump to win. And it seems like those states that Trump was critical to win, he has now won. So let's bring in David Sacks.
David, we just turned on the live stream.
And boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us, except for maybe you, but you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four All-In podcasts. You're watching these results come in, the betting markets have totally flipped to Trump. What are you seeing? And what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for?

**David Sacks** (4:47)
Yeah, I mean, it's looking just like 2016 I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done and there was no way to say anything other than, you know, Trump was the underdog.