Don't Fool Yourself: A Market Pullback Is Extremely Likely Now | Lance Roberts

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**Lance Roberts** (0:05)
How much did we save?

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Enough.

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**Lance Roberts** (1:00)
There's only been about nine times that we've gone eight weeks in a row of advances, and when you start talking about nine or 10 weeks or 11 weeks, those become much more rare historically. So we're starting to get into more of a category where a correction becomes a lot more probable. And so we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market.

**Adam Taggart** (1:29)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money, I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap, featuring my good friend, the portfolio manager and speedo swimsuit model, Lance Roberts. Lance, how you doing?

**Lance Roberts** (1:44)
Pound and a half to go.

**Adam Taggart** (1:46)
It's so- Pound and a half to go?

**Lance Roberts** (1:47)
This last week and a half is, I got one more week, and I'll tell you what, it's been a slow grind on those last two pounds.

**Adam Taggart** (1:54)
It always is, it's the 80-20 rule, right?

**Lance Roberts** (1:58)
Yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (1:59)
That last 20 percent is the 80 percent of the work.

**Lance Roberts** (2:02)
All right.

**Adam Taggart** (2:03)
Well, look, I'm sure you're very excited to be heading out of here soon to go frolic on the beaches of Italy. Are you going to take your beach pictures like the minute you get there and then say to your wife, I'm going to eat some pasta?

**Lance Roberts** (2:16)
The pictures will come very quickly, yes, because we're actually taking a cooking class while we're there, where you go pick all the vegetables and stuff out of the garden, you then make your own meal, you then eat your own meal. So we're making pasta and pizza and a lot of other stuff. So yeah, pictures got to come very soon because I'm going to gain weight very quickly over the course of the week.

**Adam Taggart** (2:38)
That sounds pretty wonderful though.

**Lance Roberts** (2:40)
Yeah, it'll be great.

**Adam Taggart** (2:41)
Yeah. Do you ever hear the comedian Bill Burr talk about how hard it is to get abs after 40?

**Lance Roberts** (2:48)
Yeah, and trust me, I'm right there with him.

**Adam Taggart** (2:51)
Yeah, it's such a great routine. But yeah, my guess is that your abs are going to basically live for like a nanosecond until you start just hoovering down all that food.

**Lance Roberts** (2:59)
I hope so. I hope long enough for pictures for the kids. That's awesome. That's all I need.

**Adam Taggart** (3:04)
Okay. All right. Well, look, we're going to miss you while you're gone, but have yourself a great time there, Lance.
All right. I got to say, usually when you go on trips, Lance, what happens?

**Lance Roberts** (3:16)
Well, I have had a bunch of people email me lately and say, Lance, don't go on your vacation because the market is going to crash. It used to be that case, like literally about four or five years ago, I go on vacation and something would happen. Over the last couple of years though, in particular, the markets have done really well when I'm gone. So maybe, fingers crossed, there's still two weeks out, but maybe markets keep doing okay for the next couple of weeks.

**Adam Taggart** (3:45)
I hope so, but I'm starting to get the feeling that we're going to have a big sell-off. While you're away, one, because the universe, I'm sure, just wants to ruin your vacation, period. But also, I mean, Lance, anything related to semiconductors or AI in any way is just going bonkers right now. You know, we've got stocks like Micron. I think Dell was up like 36% or something like that from yesterday. I think the Korean stock market has doubled this year. I mean, this does seem like it's getting out of control in terms of an unsustainable melt up here.