DOMINANCE: Duke Basketball DEBUTS #1 in KenPom, Jon Scheyer SHOCKS Nation With Elite Projections

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JJ Jackson (0:41)

Let me tell you this, more and more of the metrics are confirming what we already know. This Duke team's going to be awesome.

Jeff Fedotin (0:48)

Hi, everybody. Dick Vitale. Hey, make sure you listen, man. The Locked On Blue Devils with JJ Jackson. He's awesome, baby.

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You are Locked On Blue Devils, your daily podcast on the Duke Blue Devils, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

JJ Jackson (1:13)

Hello, everybody. Welcome into another episode of the Locked On Blue Devils podcast. My name is JJ Jackson. It is so great to have you here with us today on this Friday, October 16th, 2026 Locked On Blue Devils is your one-stop shop where we discuss everything going on inside the life of Duke Athletics. On today's show, a very good friend, Jeff Fedotin, stops by to talk about where the Blue Devils were at. Recently being named the number one team in KenPom. You look at efficiency ratings and Duke is right where you need to be. We'll get into that. We'll talk some updates about recruiting for Duke as Jon Scheyer. Spoiler alert, trending again for some of the top names in all of high school basketball right now. So here he is. Jeff's hanging out with me on the program today. Good to see you, my friend. Glad that we're doing well and getting closer to the start of the actual college basketball season. But let's get after it, man. Let's have a lively Friday conversation. What do you say?

Jeff Fedotin (2:09)

Let's do it, JJ. Always a pleasure being on your show, man.

JJ Jackson (2:12)

So I teased or mentioned it a second ago, but Duke comes out as the number one team in KenPom. And boy, Jeff, I say over the last decade or so, KenPom is very much so a part of the college basketball vernacular. You know, if we're going back 15, 20 years ago in Coach Case Heyday, these websites and these efficiency trackers weren't necessarily a thing. But it's now to the point where so much of it really can tell you what makes a good basketball team. And seeing Duke at the top once again is something I love seeing.

Jeff Fedotin (2:48)

Yeah, it's significant. And that's kind of a great point, JJ, that you made kind of a larger point that is funny. You know, I always used to scour the AP rankings. Those are becoming kind of less significant. They really don't have much to do with seeding anymore.

But KenPom's rankings and the other kind of analytics actually are more significant. So this is this is very cool that Duke, not a huge surprise that Duke would be ranked highly in KenPom. But there are a lot of really good teams out there. Florida is certainly one of them. So, yeah, very prestigious for Duke to be ranked preseason number one in KenPom.

JJ Jackson (3:25)

And the makeup of it is looking at what you can do both offensively and defensively. And when we look at where Duke is positioned right now to begin the year, it is that great mixture that, yes, it seems like all these pieces will be able to come together. Score it effectively, but also they are going to be able to defend quite well on that end too.

Jeff Fedotin (3:44)

Yeah, what is really interesting is I think defense is going to be a calling card for this Duke team. Dame Sarr is one of the best defenders in the nation. I think he is going to have a chance for some awards, whether it is in conference or nationally even for Defensive Player of the Year. Another guy that the analytics love, Patrick Ngongba. And it is really, it is actually going through these. It has made me appreciate his defensive abilities any more. And even more, that shows how much of a stalwart he is that again, the math checks out when you are looking at when Ngongba is on the floor, when he is off the floor.

JJ Jackson (4:24)

You look at the top three in KenPom, again, Duke at the top. You have got Florida number two and then Houston number three. And these teams I think are going to be the top three teams when the polls come out and people start to evaluate what it looks like. And Duke has the third best offensive rating projected going into the season and the third best defensive rating projected going into the season, which is how you are able to combine that and get that number one spot right there. Interesting here, KenPom projecting a 27-5 record for the Blue Devils this season, including a 16-2 mark in the ACC. And Jeff, they are favored to win each of their games by more than 60% except for one. And that's the Florida game, the tough test on the road there in Gainesville. But already looking at KenPom's probability odds, every single game for the Blue Devils has a greater than 60% chance to win the thing before the season starts except for one.