Did The AI Bubble Just "Jump The Shark" With The SpaceX IPO? | Chris Irons, Quoth The Raven

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**Chris Irons** (0:56)
It seems like this is the jump the shark moment here at the end of the AI euphoric bubble, and I actually think it could be very dangerous.

**Adam Taggart** (1:12)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Welcoming you back here for another discussion with the great Chris Irons, the proprietor of Quoth The Raven Fringe Finance or QTR Fringe Finance, one of the most successful financial sub-stacks in the world.
We just interviewed Chris a couple weeks ago. You might be asking why he's coming on again so soon. And I'll let Chris explain that, but basically he's come out with a new piece that he feels is so important. We needed to rush it to you folks. So Chris, great having you back on.

**Chris Irons** (1:43)
Hey, thanks for having me on short notice and for taking a solicited, me inviting myself onto your show.

**Adam Taggart** (1:52)
Hey, whenever the people I interview have something that they are bringing to the world that they feel is exceptionally important.
I love having them reach out to me to have them come on here because that's, I think, one of its most topical for viewers. And this is topical in a whole number of ways because it kind of revolves around the SpaceX IPO which, of course, has been the hottest thing in financial headlines this week. So let me stop talking and let you start. Why did you write this piece and why are you really trying to ring the bell to get folks' attentions here?

**Chris Irons** (2:25)
Well, the article is just asking whether or not SpaceX could become systemic. And I'll explain what I mean about that and just kind of start from the beginning onward. And basically, what happened this past week is I started writing this piece about the valuation in SpaceX, which to me, I believe is a referendum on the entire AI bubble right now. I think that this IPO is, it's a quintessential example of things being great and being euphoric and then reaching out and asking for like 10 times as much from the market at the very, very peak point, I think, where the market has the least amount left to give. And that's reflected in like, you know, the personal savings rate and in like valuations and in the consumer just having a lot of difficulty, credit card delinquencies, auto loan delinquencies, those types of things. So I think the consumer is well on their way to being tapped out. I think that both the psychological fuel and the monetary fuel that are powering this euphoria and AI bubble, in addition to the passive bid and the options market, which have, in my opinion, created a completely distorted and unnatural stock market. You have a broke consumer, you have a totally distorted market on top of that, add record high valuations, and now you're coming in and asking for the public to bless and unwillingly participate in the largest IPO in history.
Or one of the largest IPOs in history, definitely one of the most optimistic valuations in history. It reminds me of the movie High Fidelity, where he's like, it reminded me of asking to borrow $10, getting turned down and turning around and asking for $10,000 instead.
So, what I mean by all this, and the broader point that I'm going to get to about it being systemic, I'll get to, but just starting specifically at this company's valuation, that it asked the public to put onto it as an IPO of $2 trillion. And if you remember, $2 trillion was the number that was like floated beforehand. There was a whole bunch of talk and disbelief about the fact that they would be asking for 100 times sales multiple on this company. And then a week before the IPO started, there were all these headlines that like, hey, you know, we're kind of considering lowering the valuation to $1.8 trillion, still insane, but at least like indicia of there not being that much enthusiasm for the $2 trillion valuation. And then, something strange happened. And you know, a lot of times, we argue these things. People come back at me and they give me a bunch of bullshit about, you know, how Elon Musk is revolutionizing the future and changing the world, and he's got grandiose dreams and this and that. The other, like, let's just put all that aside. Like I'm not, I don't even want to argue whether or not it's a good company or not. I just want to talk about valuations and how in any world possible, it can make sense to value this company where it's at now. So at $2 trillion and really 2.3, I think it got up to 2.5 trillion last week when the options listed and there was this huge after-hours squeeze in the first day of trading.