Daily Crypto Deep Dive: Bitcoin Price Prediction — Is $59K the Bottom or Is $40K Coming?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
Welcome back to the Daily Crypto Deep Dive. Bitcoin has bounced from under 60,000 dollars, but the real question now is simple.
Was that the bottom? Or was it just the first warning before a much deeper move lower? Because right now, Bitcoin is sitting in one of the most important zones of this entire cycle. It has already suffered one of its worst weeks in months. It has already shaken out a lot of confidence. It has already forced traders to question whether the bull market is still alive. And now, after bouncing back above $63,000, the market is trying to decide whether this is the start of a recovery, or just a temporary relief rally before the next leg down. So in today's Daily Crypto Deep Dive, we are looking at both sides of the argument. We are going to break down why some analysts believe the Bitcoin bottom is already in around $59,000.
Why others still think Bitcoin could fall toward $40,000?
Why the $65,000 level matters so much right now? What ETF flows are telling us? What the SpaceX, IPO and Macro backdrop have changed? And what Bitcoin needs to do next to prove the worst is over? And before we get into it, this episode is brought to you by Kraken. Kraken is one of the most established names in crypto. And if you are looking to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin or other major crypto assets, you can check out Kraken using the link in the description. As always, crypto carries risk, prices move fast, and nothing in this episode is financial advice. But if you want a serious exchange with deep liquidity, strong security, and a long track record in the market, Kraken is one of the names worth looking at. Now let's get into the Bitcoin Bottom Debate. Bitcoin started the week close to $73,000.
Then it dropped hard. It fell below $60,000 for the first time since the US election in November 2024, before recovering back into the $63,000 to $64,000 range. That is a huge move in a very short period of time. And it matters because Bitcoin did not just dip slightly. It entered a valuation zone that is often associated with bear market bottoms. But here is the problem. It did not produce the kind of total panic flush that normally confirms a major bottom.
And that is why the market feels so tense. When Bitcoin finds a real bottom, you often see capitulation. You see forced selling. You see weak hands completely flushed out. You see funding reset. You see leverage wiped. You see sentiment turn extremely ugly. And then, once everyone is convinced the market is finished, Bitcoin starts climbing again. This time we have had fear. We have had selling. We have had a sharp drop. But we have not had the kind of full scale collapse in confidence that usually marks a clean cycle bottom. That is why analysts are divided. On the bullish side, Standard Chartered's Jeff Kendrick has reportedly argued that the low around $59,000 may already be the bottom. His view is that the combination of falling oil prices, improving macro conditions, the SpaceX IPO, and a return of ETF inflows could be enough to mark a turning point. And to be fair, there is a real argument there. Bitcoin did recover quickly from the danger zone. US-spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly saw daily net inflows of around $85.85 million on June 12, ending some of the pressure from the previous outflow streak. That matters because ETF demand has become one of the most important drivers of this Bitcoin cycle.
If ETFs are bleeding money, Bitcoin struggles. If ETF inflows return, Bitcoin gets support. That is the simple version. And when you combine that with macro relief, oil cooling, stock stabilizing, and risk appetite improving around the SpaceX IPO, it gives the bulls something to work with. But the bearish side has a very different view.
Galaxy's Alex Thorne has warned that Bitcoin may not have reached its true cycle bottom yet. Galaxy's base case scenario reportedly sees Bitcoin eventually bottoming somewhere between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026 Their shallower bear case is around $51,000 to $54,000, while a harsher washout could take Bitcoin into the $30,000 to $39,000 range.
Now, that sounds brutal. But it is important to understand what Galaxy is not saying. They are not necessarily calling for the classic 80% Bitcoin collapse that ended previous cycles. In fact, both Standard Chartered and Galaxy appear to reject the idea that Bitcoin needs another old school 77% to 85% crash this time. That is important. Why? Because Bitcoin is a different asset now. It has ETFs. It has deeper institutional ownership. It has corporate treasuries. It has more regulated access. It has more professional capital involved. That does not mean it cannot crash. It absolutely can. But it may mean the shape of the cycle has changed. Instead of a full 80% collapse, this cycle might be more complicated. It could be a long, grinding, painful reset. Less dramatic than past bear markets, but still extremely uncomfortable. A move from $126,000 down to $59,000 is already a major drawdown. A move to $40,000 would be even more painful. But it would still not be the same percentage collapse Bitcoin has seen in previous cycles. And that is what makes this moment so difficult. Bitcoin might already have bottomed. But it might also still have one more big test coming. So what level matters most now?