Current Bear Market Rally To Bring "More Pain This Year" | Tom McClellan

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**Tom McClellan** (1:00)
I'm expecting that the the surge that we saw in breadth is going to turn out to be a just a bear market rally irrespective of the positive signal from the swag breath thrust signal. And we're going to have some more pain this year.

**Adam Taggart** (1:22)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. When markets are as volatile and the macro outlook is uncertain as we've seen in the past few months, turning to the data and navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful, which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action. Tom, thanks so much for joining us.

**Tom McClellan** (1:48)
Adam, good to see you.

**Adam Taggart** (1:50)
Good to see you too. It's been a while. I'm so glad that we have you back on the channel. And Tom, as I said right there in the intro, it's been a kind of a chaotic couple of months for investors. And so the analogy I like to use is it's sort of like flying a plane, right? The pilot looks both outside the window, but also at their instrumentation and takes both into account. But when things are kind of murky outside that windshield, you have to rely on your instruments a lot more. And it feels like we're at one of those times in the market right now.
So I'm very happy to get a chance to peek at all your instrumentation. I know you've prepared some slides for us. Real quick, before we get into it, two questions for you. First off, just in general, how would you, having looked at markets for your very long and successful career, how would you characterize today's markets?

**Tom McClellan** (2:43)
Well, first, I like your analogy about being a pilot and having a plan and having instruments. Because I flew helicopters in the Army for 11 years. And so I really like it having a flight plan. And then I also like to make sure that, yes, I am where I'm supposed to be. I am at the right place on the map and the instruments are confirming that everything is happening. And if it's not, then I got to circle back or, or pull up a different radio, navigate or something like that to find out where I am and get, get myself back on track. And that, and that's the way I approach the markets. I like to have a plan.
And I like to know what's supposed to happen. And then I like to have confirming indicators that tell me, yes, indeed, things are happening as they're supposed to, or no, hold on, whoa, something's different now. And when everything's happening like it's supposed to, I can trade with more confidence, trade more aggressively, trade, you know, more heavier positions when things are not going as well. Maybe it's time to lighten up or step aside until the market starts making sense again. And so-

**Adam Taggart** (3:40)
Well, it's great to know that you're doing a bit of that this year.

**Tom McClellan** (3:44)
Some of what's happening this year is what's supposed to be happening. Other things that are happening this year are a little bit unexpected and uncommanded, but, and I brought some charts to talk about all that if you want to get into those.

**Adam Taggart** (3:59)
Okay, yeah, well, we'll get in just a second, but I'm just curious. So when you say some things are going as planned, some things are surprises. Is that sort of standard in any given year, or is this year more extreme one way or the other?