Crypto Market Outlook! Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Cardano, & Solana Analysis!

**Tony Edward** (0:00)
Oh, absolutely. I don't think, Brian, from the years we've done this, I've seen an MVRV that bad on a 30-day.

**Brian** (0:07)
I know, I know. I think ever since this big drop here in mid-May that just caught so many XRP traders off guard when they were getting excited about 150 and stuff, this just decimated a lot of people, and we saw just a massive drop off from there.

**Tony Edward** (0:27)
Hey folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward, and joining me is Brian from Santiment. As you all know, we're going to do a deep dive into the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin and the altcoins to get an idea what's happening in the market and what may come next. Brian, great to see you.

**Brian** (0:43)
Good to see you, Tony. We've got a FOMC decision that's coming up in a couple hours. Things are about to go pretty crazy, I would imagine, no matter what, but I'm excited to dig in.

**Tony Edward** (0:55)
Yeah. Every time there's an FOMC meeting, I've noticed from years of studying the markets, there's a lot of volatility swings in both ways, and you have to let the dust settle, but certainly, everybody's curious to see what Kevin Warsh is going to do, and there's also a lot of talks about the Clarity Act, and will that pass next week? So lots to discuss.

**Brian** (1:16)
Yeah. From what I've seen on the FOMC expectations, we are seeing anywhere between the low to mid-20 percentile for expectations that an interest rate hike will happen, at least according to Polymark and Kal-Shee.
Many of you watching have your own expectations, and you'll find out the truth by the time this episode gets released. But going into that decision, it looks like the predominant assumption is, if rates hike for some reason, we're going to go down. If rates stay the same, we'll probably have a moderate uptick where traders collectively exhale a bit.

**Tony Edward** (2:02)
Yeah, I'm looking at the CME Fed watch tool. It's also showing a higher probability that there's no change and rates remain the same. But then you'll see if we're going to get a dovish or a hawkish wash. I almost said powell, but you know, wash.

**Brian** (2:19)
Exactly. The new normal. We got to get used to that still. I still think of powell every time there's an FOMC meeting and now we're on our second for wash here. So it should be interesting.
Regarding the Clarity Act, it's funny just about two weeks ago, they said we are two weeks away from having that decision made. Of course, that hasn't happened yet, but we're continuing to get little breadcrumbs showing us that they're progressing. So we're still kind of waiting and seeing on that.

**Tony Edward** (2:47)
Yeah, I know there's a hard deadline next week because the Senate and the House go on August recess. So they have to get something passed by next week or it's going to be tough to move it later this year in an election year. But obviously this is big for crypto, right? It could have a significant impact on what happens with Bitcoin and altcoins. So maybe on that note, Brian, we could take a look at the sentiment around Bitcoin. How are people feeling right now?

**Brian** (3:12)
Sure. Let's check it out here. So beginning with just a quick price update, you can see at least over the past week, almost call it 90% of assets are in the red. You've got this anomaly over here beat up 46%. But for the most part, Bitcoin back down in the 64Ks, I would imagine that's about to get shaken up once we find out the interest rate decision. Ethereum, pretty similar. You got Solana and XRP down 6% each collectively. So when we check out the sentiment for those, I wouldn't be surprised if they're a little in the negative.
But what's interesting here, Tony, is look how much the social volume is up fairly across the board. Bitcoin is seeing a 6% rise in discussions overall compared to last week. Ethereum, 18.5% rise, Tether even plus 16%.
And you can see it kind of across the board here, just a lot of assets with interest rates, not that kind of interest rate, but the amount of discussion related to them spiking a bit heading into this FOMC decision. And of course, like you said, the Clarity Act and the increased focus on cryptocurrencies as we get closer to that.

**Tony Edward** (4:33)
With regards to the MVRV, what does that look like?

**Brian** (4:39)
So for MVRVs, when we look at the average trading returns for traders that have been active in the past 30 days, it's pretty much break even right now. Bitcoin 30-day holders are plus 1.1 percent, so not much of a signal in either direction there. However, long-term, still down at negative 26 percent. I would expect that we continue to see this healthily in the negative range, which does create a slight bullish signal if you're in it for the long term. Remember that if you're looking at the 30-day and you want a trading strategy, look at it as how am I going to do over the next 30 days relative to what the traders have just done over their past 30 days. If they're plus 1.1, not much of a signal. But if you're planning to hold for a year, this line here signals that you would be doing so with much less risk than average.