Counting the fuel costs of two major conflicts

Vishala Sripathma (0:01)

Markets aren't buying Trump's energy cease-fire, with Ukraine saying the strikes haven't stopped.

Tetiana Drobotcha (0:07)

We don't know what the new problems Russia is planning to cause for us, because they're usually, you know, trying to find the next and next level, how to make our life worse.

Vishala Sripathma (0:18)

It's World Business Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Vishala Sripathma. On the way, Russia struck six energy facilities in Ukraine just hours after Donald Trump announced what he called an energy cease-fire between Moscow and Kyiv. We'll hear from the Ukrainian front line, plus France's supermarkets have been hit by a cyber attack that's turned up the heat in the chilled aisles and screaming profits for horror films.

So European foreign ministers have been lining up on Monday to condemn Donald Trump's plan to import hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel into the United States. Vice President of the European Commission, Kaya Kalas, urged unity in the face of Russian aggression.

Kaja Kallas (1:09)

Every time we are together with the United States, the UK, our other like minded partners, the sanctions have much bigger effect.

Vishala Sripathma (1:19)

So the US president says the move is aimed at bringing down fuel prices for American consumers. But with fresh attacks reported in Riyadh and the conflict between Israel and Iran continuing to ripple through global energy markets, it's raising a bigger question of what's really driving diesel prices right now.

Is it the latest tensions in the Middle East or are the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine still having the greater impact? Well, Ben Chu, whose policy and analysis correspondent with BBC Verify has been taking a look.

Ben Chu (1:53)

There's no doubt when you look at the numbers that the Iran conflict, which began on the 28th of February, has had a very profound impact on the availability of diesel supplies to the global economy. So we looked at the amount of diesel coming out of Middle Eastern Gulf states, so that's Saudi, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain. And in 2025, so the year before this conflict began, it was running at about 1.4 million barrels of diesel every day.

So obviously, they export a lot of crude oil, but also a lot of refined products, including diesel.

And the most recent full month for which we have data, so September 2026, that 1.4 million barrels of day had gone down to about 670,000 barrels a day. So pretty significant drop off by about 810,000 barrels. And that's because obviously, refined products aren't able to get through the straight of Hormuz in the way that they could before. And overall, the diesel coming out of the Middle East is a lot lower and that's had a big impact on the global price of diesel.

Vishala Sripathma (2:57)

And how does that compare with Ukraine?

Ben Chu (2:59)

Well, there's also been a pretty profound impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the supply of diesel to global markets as well. So if you look at in a similar way what was coming out of Russia in terms of refined diesel because they are a very big, the world's second biggest exporter in recent years, they were exporting about 810,000 barrels a day in 2025

In September 2026, so again, the most recent full month, that had gone down to about only 140,000 barrels. So that's dropped considerably by about 670,000 barrels a day. And that's because of the strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries mainly. Again, it's collapsed the amount of diesel coming out of Russia to global markets. Now, if you compare those two figures, 670,000 a day shortfall coming from Russia is lower than the shortfall from the Middle East, which is about 810,000. But they're both pretty significant. And those combination of those two conflicts has really pushed up the global diesel price, which we're all feeling at the pumps and we're all seeing in the impact on inflation in our economies.

Vishala Sripathma (4:13)

President Trump says importing Russian diesel will bring prices down. But realistically, how much of a difference will that make? How quickly could consumers see any relief?

Ben Chu (4:26)

Well, if you look at the actual figures he cited as being part of this deal, whereby the US will start importing Russian diesel directly, they're by no means large enough to have a significant effect, according to most analysts on the prices that people pay in America or in the global economy. The US is the world's biggest diesel exporter as it is. So there's not a shortage of diesel in the United States, in the sense that that would be fundamentally changed by importing more from Russia. It's really the supply to the global market. And the additional supply to the global market from Russia is just not enough, according to most analysts we've been speaking to, to make a significant difference to the global price of diesel, which is affecting everyone.