Colliding Market Headwinds & Tailwinds Make This A Time For Caution | Michael Lebowitz

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**Michael Lebowitz** (1:00)
Is the likelihood that the tailwinds will just get us much higher?
Or can the headwinds push us much lower? And, you know, I think it just, let's be cautious here. You know, if you want to take a few chips off the table for the next six months, understanding that we could have these short-term surges, short-term declines, we could very much end up where we were, you know, at the end of the year, where we are today. But we're probably gonna have more volatility and more reason to take just a cautious approach.

**Adam Taggart** (1:38)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you here for another weekly market recap at the end of the week. This time featuring my good friend, the portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz. We kicked that guy, Lance Roberts, to the curb. How are you doing, Mike?

**Michael Lebowitz** (1:55)
Good. We kicked him all the way to Europe.

**Adam Taggart** (1:56)
We kicked him all the way to Europe. Yeah. Now, Lance, folks, if you're a regular watcher and haven't been paying attention, Lance is off enjoying himself, a very well-deserved vacation with his wife. And the beaches of Italy this week. I will say that he had been working really hard to trim down for photos, get himself a nice six pack at his ripe 61 years. And he sent me a photo. He achieved it.
He's looking great.

**Michael Lebowitz** (2:26)
It's good to hear. He works out pretty much every day, which is good for him. Apparently, it's working out.

**Adam Taggart** (2:34)
Yeah. Well, kind of intimidating, Mike, because I mean, you're a guy who's into fitness and you're in pretty good shape. But yeah, Lance, I mean, most regular viewers know, was a mixed martial artist for a lot of his youth. So I mean, already a dude you don't want to mess with. But even at his current age here, he's still in pretty darn good fighting shape.

**Michael Lebowitz** (2:56)
Yeah. No, I always find that hard to believe that he was an MMA boxer or fighter, whatever they call them. That's pretty significant.

**Adam Taggart** (3:06)
So when you guys are disagreeing in your portfolio management meetings, is there a line at which you just start backing down?

**Michael Lebowitz** (3:12)
No, because I'm half a country away from him. So I know it will take him a while to get to me.

**Adam Taggart** (3:21)
Yeah. Well, anyways, we hope Lance is having a great time, and he'll be back next week. Although Michael, you're welcome to, we're happy to boot him for you anytime you want to come on the channel here. But look, let's dig in here, folks. This one might be a little bit short of the normal, but we'll find out. I was putting together the talking lists for today, Michael, and the theme that came into my mind, kept coming into my mind was everything, everywhere, all at once. So when I had Lance on last week, we've been talking for a couple of months now about we're just having this surge in the markets with anything AI-related. Semiconductors have been going vertical, and just anything with a whiff of AI has been melting up here. It's been dragging the markets up with it. We now have even more speculative fuel to the fire, which we'll talk about in a second, but we've got the SpaceX IPO that's pricing today. We've got a couple other really big private companies coming to market with IPO soon, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google's doing an 80 billion secondary offering. There's just a ton of speculation in the market, but Lance has been saying, look, this isn't going to last forever, and at some point, things are going to get so overstretched here, there's going to be a pullback. We started to see that a week ago. In fact, I think the intro to the last week's video, Lance was saying, I think the correction started.