Clarity Window Closing, Robinhood Eating Ethereum Value & Coinbase's Base Reset

**Jason Yanowitz** (0:00)
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All right, happy Friday. What's up, folks? Welcome back, welcome back. Rob, Santi. Yeah, no, we got the gang. Rob, looking dapper today.

**Santiago Roel** (0:33)
Rob looks like he's in Broadway, you know.

**Rob Hadick** (0:37)
I literally asked before you came on, Santi, I was like, is there too much light in this room? And they're like, no, you look great. But I'm not.

**Jason Yanowitz** (0:41)
You look great, Rob. You look great.

**Rob Hadick** (0:43)
My forehead is like, it's just like shining right now.

**Jason Yanowitz** (0:46)
You look great.
Someone told me that the lighting on me was great last week. Unfortunately.

**Santiago Roel** (0:53)
So much, but by that, you mean your own alt on the Empire telegram?

**Jason Yanowitz** (0:56)
Oh my God. I'm so crying. I'm so crying from that Rob comment before we started recording. Oh God.
How are you doing? Rob, you're in DC. What's happening in DC? Genius. Genius one year anniversary. Did you go to the Circle event last night?

**Rob Hadick** (1:11)
So I didn't end up going. I was going to go, but ended up having to do a dinner that was with some people who have actually been working directly on Clarity. So that was actually a really good dinner.
And so listen, I think we're in crunch time right now. There's a lot of people who have been here for that Circle event last night. A lot of people are here to try to figure out ways that they can be helpful to continue to work on this bill. I think there's a number of senators and senators teams that are working with or meeting with the administration today actually to try to hammer out some ethics language. And so we're in crunch time.

**Jason Yanowitz** (1:50)
More, more information, please. How's Clarity looking? I mean, let's pull up the...

**Rob Hadick** (1:54)
I think Paul is 35% today, so it came down. So I would say the general vibes are this.

**Jason Yanowitz** (2:05)
You're going to let me share a cal sheet chart on the screen?

**Rob Hadick** (2:08)
No, I don't know why you're doing that. This is not allowed.
Yeah, 36%. There we go.
Listen, so I would say the general vibes are not great. And I would expect that there is... Most people would say, and I'll have more information today, too, as I have a lot of meetings, but most people would say that we're unlikely to get Clarity. So under 50% is priced appropriately. Now, I am hearing that people are optimistic of a vote, and a vote before the August recess. And so whether that happens late this month or the first week of August, but whether or not we can get to 60 is another story. And a lot of that comes down to how those conversations go with the administration today and with a number of different teams that are working on this bill.

**Jason Yanowitz** (3:07)
So I will actually share Kalsha here because they do have like the by the month. So August 1st is a 5%. You know, will crypto market structure become law by August 1st, 5%, September 1st, 15%, October 1st, 25%, by end of year, 36%. So before Jan 1 And then before, you know, kind of in sometime in 2027 is 62%. So what's the conversation like Rob in terms of like, will this ever happen? Or is it like a 20 or maybe this is just a 2027 thing?
Is it more of a timeline thing or we're hung up on issues? Well, we're mutually exclusive.

**Rob Hadick** (3:50)
Yeah, we're definitely on issues. And you know, that seems pretty mispriced to me, to be honest, because I don't know a single person thinks that we are going to get clarity in a new Congress. If, depending on, it depends a little bit on what happens.

**Jason Yanowitz** (4:04)
That was my thought too. Yeah, that's right.

**Rob Hadick** (4:06)
It depends on obviously what happens in the election, but I don't know what Pauly is today, but the vast majority of people believe that Democrats are going to take the House.
And there's, you know, I think there's a perspective that most likely Republicans keep the Senate, but you know, it's not a done deal. It's probably something like 55, 58% Republican Senate. And so if that happens, if one of those chambers flips over to the Democrat side, I don't think anybody believes that we're likely to get, you know, anywhere a version of clarity that works for both industry and for both sides of the aisle in a new Congress, which means that, you know, it has to happen before the end of the year. And I think even people, most people believe there's not going to be appetite for it during a lame duck. So meaning that it has to happen before November.