China’s Endgame: ASI Timelines, US-China Relations, and the $1.7T AI Bubble With Alvin Graylin | #281

**Dave Blundin** (0:00)
There seems to be a prevailing view around the campuses that ASI is, you know, five to ten years out, maybe even twenty years. And so I'm really curious what the prevailing view is in China.

**Alvin Wang Graylin** (0:10)
They are not behaving like they believe ASI is around the corner.

**Peter Diamandis** (0:15)
Why do you believe getting clarity and some resolution on the US-China AI race is so important right now?

**Alvin Wang Graylin** (0:21)
Having a race condition forces people to make irrational decisions. At some point, we will get to a superintelligence type of a scenario. If and when we do, the concept of nations will probably come a lot less important than they are today. The AI sector alone is worth more than the GDP of America today. That, to me, is a sign that we are in a very, very fragile place, and an economic correction is due.

**Alexander Wissner-Gross** (0:48)
What I hear you saying in your war game is sometime in the next two years, there's a private credit bubble that the US is using to finance its data center, to build out, the bubble pops, and then the US asks China to help financially in return for, what, a quid pro quo regarding Taiwan?

**Alvin Wang Graylin** (1:06)
I will tell you this.

**Dave Blundin** (1:10)
Now, that's the Moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.

**Peter Diamandis** (1:15)
Welcome to Moonshots, everyone, your number one podcast in all things AI and technology, your front row seat to the accelerating singularity. I'm here with my magnificent Moonshot mates, the original four, including me, AWG, DB2 and Salim, my brilliant colleagues who every week help me, hopefully you understand what's happening at this incredible rate of speed. I'm Peter Diamandis, your host and abundance entrepreneur and evangelist. Welcome to a very special episode of Moonshots Today. Today, our mission is to go deep on China and AI and discuss it with someone who's lived and operated inside both the Chinese and US technology ecosystems for over 35 years. Alvin, welcome.

**Alvin Wang Graylin** (2:01)
Yes, it's great to be here. I watched your show all the time, so I'm glad to be able to chat with all of you.

**Dave Blundin** (2:07)
We're going to quiz you then. I'll ask you as we go.

**Peter Diamandis** (2:11)
When do we say drink?
What's Alex's favorite term?
Dyson's form. Dyson's form. Dyson's form. Yes, you got it. Drink, drink, drink.
Let me do a proper introduction of Alvin. So Alvin Wang Graylin is both a friend and someone who's held senior executive roles at HTC, Intel, IBM, Trend Micro and WatchGuard Tech. He's worked in all five layers of the AI stack, the data centers, chips, PCs, phones, XR glasses and apps, and he's built and founded over four startups. Two years ago on this channel, we were discussing his recent book, Our Next Reality. He's now a digital fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human Centered AI, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, professor of AI Policy at University of Washington. He's currently supporting the US government and for the coming US-China AI safety dialogues. That's going to be happening on September 24th in DC. The very next day, on the 25th, we have our Moonshots live event.
He's lived and operated extensively in the US, China and Taiwan with dual master's degrees from MIT in computer science and business. Love having another MIT grad on the show here. And an electrical engineering degree from University of Washington. This is a conversation, guys, I've been waiting for for a long time to really go deep and understand what's going on. And Alvin, you're going to bring a unique perspective on the US and the China AI race. You've argued that the game isn't a prisoner's dilemma. It's a stag hunt, a game theory model about coordination and trust. Alvin is the author of two key papers we're going to link to in the show notes below, Beyond Rivalry and Misdiagnosing the US China AI Race. Last week, he just released a new paper around AI security. The biggest AI models are not the biggest threats, where he proposes that it's the smaller AI models we need to be more worried about, and cooperation is the only path toward safety. Alvin just returned from speaking at the World AI Conference in Shanghai, where President Xi did the opening keynote. He's had a chance to meet with leadership across all the Chinese AI labs, discuss AI governance issues with the senior Chinese regulators and policy makers. We'll hear about how they're thinking directly from Alvin. Today's pod is going to be far-ranging. We're going to be covering topics from China's open-weight models using AI for diplomacy, as well as robots and AI regulation. Very importantly, we'll be discussing the coming US-China AI safety dialogues. I want to understand what the objectives are, Alvin, and what you think might be accomplished.