Cashing Out | October 17, 2026 | Hour 3

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

This is Cashing Out on VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Scott Seidenberg (0:09)

Scott Siedenberg, back here with you. Cashing Out continues here on VSiN, The Sports Betting Network. You guys can always contribute to the program. Hit me up on Twitter, at Scott's on Air, S-C-O-T-T-S-O-N-A-I-R.

Tag us all on the network, at VSiN Live. You can also communicate with us in our brand new VSiN community. Go to vsin.com/community, share your bets, share your thoughts, ask your questions, interact with other VSiN Pro members. We are talking NFL Week 6 Sunday, and we have a lot of big spreads here in these games, and big spreads have been a problem this year. Not only do we have big spreads, but we have big spreads in divisional games as well. This season, when you are the touchdown favorites, or better yet, I should say, touchdown dogs. Dogs of seven or more this year have absolutely crushed it. 13, five and two against the spread this year. This has been the year of the big dogs. They're six and 14 out, right? But we don't care about that. 13, five and two against the spread, if you simply just take the number with the teams that are seven point dogs or higher, and we have a bunch of them here on this schedule this week. We have the Jets, who right now here at Circa, and I want to talk about look ahead lines as well. We have the Jets, seven and a half point dogs at the New England Patriots. You have, let's see, Indianapolis is a seven point dog. Now here, again, these are all Circa lines. Jets are actually a seven point dog, excuse me, at the New England Patriots. The Colts or Titans, seven point dogs at the Colts. You have the Cardinals, 12 and a half point dogs at the Rams. The Chargers, seven and a half point dogs at the Chiefs. And then on Monday night, the Commanders, seven and a half point dogs at San Francisco. And again, dogs of seven or more this year have covered 13 five and two against the spread. What about divisional dogs? Divisional dogs this year also having great success. Divisional dogs this year are 15 and seven against the spread. 15 and seven. And a lot of those games that I just talked about with the large spreads are actually division games as well.

Chargers at the Chiefs, that's a divisional game, in which we have a big dog at a divisional game. Same thing with the Rams and the Cardinals, a big dog in a divisional game. The Titans and the Colts, a big dog in a divisional game. The Jets and the Patriots, a big dog in a divisional game.

So combining systems here, and it's very appetizing and enticing to take the points with these dogs. But I wanted to do a little exercise here, and I wanted to take a look at the entire board here of Week 6 Sunday, and look at what the market was prior to last week's games.

Because a lot of the times, there is a market recency bias, and people that come in and bet these games, they always want to bet on what have you done for me lately? What have you seen lately? And so you can be influenced by what you just saw. And so the lines change. So let's take a look at where we are now and where we were prior to last week's games. The Jaguars were three-point favorites over the Houston Texans. They are now two-and-a-half-point favorites over the Houston Texans. What has changed? Not much. I mean, the Texans look better, right? And the Texans, I've talked about this before, analytically great out a lot better than their one-in-four record.

They are actually significantly better than their one-in-four record. If you just look at EPA and other analytic numbers like that, they're like middle of the road. They're not as bad as their record says they are.

Let's take, let's continue to go down the board here.

Bears at Falcons, Bears were one-point favorites. Now, that was pricing in the possibility of Caleb Williams returning. Caleb Williams is returning. Also, Michael Penick's got banged up, but Caleb Williams is returning for the Bears. They are here at Circa a pick them, which is very interesting because Circa is taking a stance on this game.

Across the board, Chicago is a one-and-a-half-point favorite at Atlanta. Here at Circa, it is a pick them.

So take that for what you will. The Sharp Book has it as a pick-em. Circa is taking a stance on this game.

Look ahead was minus one, now the game is a pick-em. Or still minus one, minus one-and-a-half if you go by this. Browns and Ravens, another situation with the quarterback news. Obviously, Lamar Jackson was thought to return, so the line was minus three-and-a-half or minus three, with Lamar being priced in, Lamar is not playing. So this line, or excuse me, the three-and-a-half was priced with Lamar not playing. The line did move during the week when it was thought that Lamar would play. It got up to five-and-a-half, and then it settled back down at three-and-a-half with the announcement that Lamar is not playing. So it was kind of half-baked in, Lamar not playing, then Lamar got, you know, he was practicing, the market reacted. In fact, in the Circuit Millions contest, this line's five-and-a-half, and the market is now down to three-and-a-half. Of course, Lamar is out, Tyler Huntley, in at quarterback. Titans at Colts, Colts were six-and-a-half point favorites on the look ahead, and they're pretty much six-and-a-half to seven-point favorites right now. Same thing, line Patriots, they were seven-point favorites over the Jets, they're seven-point favorites over the Jets, seven-and-a-half. Giants were one-point home dogs against the Saints, and you look across the market right now, Games of Pick'em here at Circa, Giants one-and-to-one-and-a-half point dogs at other books, so no real change in the market there with the look-ahead to what we saw last week. The Eagles and Panthers, obviously, it's all about the quarterback. And the question is, has the line moved too much? Okay, so the look-ahead line was Eagles minus one-and-a-half.