Canada Masters 2026 PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS | Monday Match Analysis

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**Gill Gross** (1:28)
Welcome everyone to Monday Match Analysis. I'm Gill Gross, and it is time for a preview of the 2026 National Bank Open, otherwise known as the Canada Masters. Men this year are in Montreal. I'm actually going to Toronto for a couple of days to call some women's matches for Tennis Channel. Really looking forward to that. But we'll preview Montreal. We'll go quarter by quarter as we always do, kicking off this North American hard court swing.
I took a little break from the show. I actually have been busy, but not with the show. So good to be back. Let's start here. Storyline coming in, one of them, and I'm sure this will go away once the tournament starts. But in terms of the buzz leading up to the tournament, everybody is talking about no Carlos Alcaraz again, no Jannik Sinner again, no Novak Djokovic again, just like it was last year for this event, unfortunately. And everyone on my Twitter feed, basically in unison, all said the same thing when this news dropped, when Sinner and Djokovic pulled out on the same day. They all said, damn you, extended two-week Masters 1000s, you've ruined it, you've ruined this event.
Look, I get it, I understand why that was the reaction. I am not a defender of the format. I have covered the flaws, the drawbacks when it comes to the format on the show many, many, many times.
But we've got a short-term memory here, don't we? Right? Because last year, the Canada Masters became an expanded event for the first time, a two-week event, really 12, 13 day event, right? First time last year. So let's go back before then and examine the participation at the Canada Masters among the top players. Roger Federer, after 2011, played Canada, how many times? Twice.
This was Nadal's best hardcore event. He sometimes prioritized it over Cincinnati. How many times after 2011, when both of these were one-week events, how many times after 2011 did Nadal actually play both? Three times.
When's the last time Djokovic played Canada? 2018
He's won 11 slams since 2018
He hasn't played Canada. So, I get the reaction to be mad at the Expanded Masters 1000s for players skipping out of this event. That's actually not it in this case. Now, I understand there's an age difference in some of these cases where Sinner is mid-20s. If you look at Djokovic not playing Canada since 2018, you're looking at a more advanced age Djokovic in that particular sample size. But I also think that the big three, how long they played and how diligent they were about taking care of their bodies, I think they set a bit of an example for the future elite players in the sport.
For how maybe it should be done. How important it is to make sure that you're not overextending your physicality. And prioritizing majors as they did so clearly. I think there is a bit of an example set. So I feel horrible for Canada, the National Bank Open.
But this isn't Gaudenzi's fault. This isn't the expanded master's fault. It has always been in a bad calendar spot. Always. This is not new. Let's have a memory.
And last year it was even worse because there was only two weeks between Wimbledon and the start of Canada. And this year, because of the way the calendar shook out, there was actually that extra week. So it was three weeks. And for that reason, I know tournament director David Hale, and they were expecting to have better luck this year than they did last year. Not the case. Unfortunate. I feel sorry for the locals at these events. I feel sorry for the people involved with these events. It's not great. At the same time, I'll also say this. Let's not doomsday this as if we can't have a great tournament when Sincaraz and Djokovic aren't there. Because last year, I quite enjoyed the derby of who's going to take advantage of this opportunity in front of them. And I thought it ended up being a pretty compelling tournament. And it was Ben Shelton. As a tennis fan, I don't think it's all so bad. If I'm in the C-suite at the ATP, am I a little uncomfortable with my premium events? Remember, I don't make anything from the slams. I don't have the slams. These Masters 1000s are my premium events. Am I a little bit uncomfortable with the fact that you have players skipping it for rest to take care of their bodies? Maybe. Yeah. I mean, it's not ideal, obviously. But Canada is... It's always been in a tricky spot. So that is my opening thoughts. Let's get into this quarter-by-quarter preview, starting with the top seed, the man who is participating, coming off of his run of the Wimbledon final. That's Alexander Zverev. Top seeds here are Zverev, Fritz, Tien, Sorindolo, Paul, Umber, Arnaldi and Collignon. My dark horse here is Alex Mikkelsen. My upset alert is Lerner Tien. My early popcorn is Monfils vs. Myshruk in round one. So I got to watch a lot of Alex Mikkelsen. I was in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, calling all of his matches en route to his title run there. And first off, I really like the work that he's put in to get ready for this part of the season, to get ready for this swing. Some of the tour, they are coming off that rest period post Wimbledon, where they have maybe taken vacation. They've taken a week off. They're just getting back into the swing of things. Mickelson is not in that position. In fact, quite the contrary. He is trying to really take advantage of this moment in the calendar. The reason why he played back-to-back challengers after Wimbledon is because he had an oblique injury, didn't play any grass-court events, so didn't play between Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and then was like, he felt he wanted matches so that he was really ready to go come Washington, DC, just played a really tight match with Taylor Fritz, actually had a match point and had a second serve on that match point, shanked a forehand or at least badly miss hit a forehand. Mickelson's weapons are still inconsistent, so that's the problem. He was a forehand return away from beating Fritz. I think Alex's serve is not always firing for him how he would want, and his forehand is not always firing for him how he would want, but he's still really tough to play. If you're dropping the ball short, he's bringing net rushing pressure. He's patient from neutral. He makes really good decisions. He soaks up power very well, and I love his return in defense, especially for his general build. I think people look at him and they think he's not going to defend well. He's not going to return well because he is a six foot five guy who carries around a lot of weight. But in Bloomfield Hills, for example, he didn't really have his offensive ball striking dialed in. Certainly not maybe until the final against Fernley. And yet he was playing guys with big weapons and he was just able to neutralize serves, neutralize those weapons to stay in points and to basically draw a lot of errors out of his opponents with his more so his defensive skills. So I have Mickelson making the fourth round. I think he's a tough matchup for Cirundolo because Cirundolo from the baseline really tries to produce his offense through the inside out forehand. I think it's very hard to hit inside out forehands against Mickelson because he's so precise with his backhand, keeping it out of the middle. So Mickelson is my dark horse here. My upset alert is another man from Newport Beach.