Can Trump make a deal with Iran?

Rob Armstrong (0:00)

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Katie Martin (0:50)

Pushkin.

The thing about that Donald Trump is, the guy sure loves doing a deal. He certainly loves talking about doing a deal. Since his war against Iran started, he has stated that a deal to end it is just around the corner about 40 times, 4-0. And do we have a deal? We do not. We supposedly have had a ceasefire for weeks, and for what it's worth, markets have kind of moved on. But the latest is that the two sides are still tearing strips out of each other to say nothing of the role of Israel. Today on the show, seriously now, what is actually going on?

This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast with Financial Times and Pushkin. I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at FT Towers back in London where summer has officially been canceled. And I'm joined by professional triathletes, the sporting specimen that is Mr. Robert Armstrong in New York. Rob, say hello.

Rob Armstrong (1:51)

Hello. I think you exaggerate slightly. I have not recovered.

And I finished exactly in the middle of my age group.

Katie Martin (1:59)

In the triathlon, were there any walruses? Because I think I've may have mentioned before that a walrus can run faster than a man and swim faster than a man. So you've really got to nail the cycling section.

Rob Armstrong (2:11)

If there had been a walrus, it would have been way in front of me, so I never would have seen it.

Katie Martin (2:17)

Apart from the cycling bit. We digress. But also, we have been trying to get him on the show for ages, and he keeps saying no and claiming to be busy. But with me in the studio today in London, we have Andrew England, the FT's Middle East editor and generally a good egg.

Andrew England, you have been a busy man, have you not?

Andrew England (2:37)

It's been a little bit busy, yes.

Katie Martin (2:42)

He's got a thousand-yard stare going on.

Rob Armstrong (2:45)

Yes.

Katie Martin (2:46)

Mr. Andrew England, I put it to you, that in March, you wrote that Trump says there was a deal.

On April 12th, you wrote the two sides had failed to reach a deal. On May 8th, you wrote that Trump had said the ceasefire was holding. On May 24th, you said a deal to reopen Hormuz was largely negotiated. You get the idea. It just goes on and on and round and round. I feel like I'm going nuts. You must be like losing your mind here.

Andrew England (3:14)

It's been a bit crazy, but I never said it was a straight road. There are mediation efforts going on, and there have been consistently going on.

Led by Pakistan, Qatar is taking a bigger role now.

And about two weeks ago, they actually did feel that they were on the brink. They had fought, because basically, you're talking about one page, a one page document. And this is not a final deal, and that's one thing to remember. This is essentially an extension of the CISFAR, which has been in place since April the 8th.

For Trump, the key thing is it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has obviously pushed energy prices up, pushed prices at the US petrol pump up ahead of the midterms. So that's a key thing for him. And he's wanted that essentially reopened as part of the original CISFAR on April the 8th. So he's increasingly frustrated. So it would do that, and it would also lay the framework for nuclear negotiations. There wouldn't be any significant commitment by Iran on the nuclear fire. So essentially, it's a temporary deal to move to another phase, get a more durable CISFAR, give Trump a win in terms of reopening the Strait, ease the global energy crisis. And depending on how the next stage of negotiations go, there will be some economic dividend for Iran. So they have been moving closer to it, but then you're dealing with these two parties that have decades of hostility and distrust to overcome. That's been exacerbated by the US and Israel striking Iran twice in the last year, whilst it was holding nuclear talks with the Trump administration.