BITCOIN vs GOLD: Can BTC Catch Up FAST?

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Bitcoin does not need gold to crash to make a serious move higher. So the real question here is not when we can make a new all-time high, it is how many ounces of gold you get per Bitcoin? And how fast can that close if the bid shifts from gold to gold and Bitcoin together? And in the gold bug's ultimate fear, when does Bitcoin take the lead? And that is the real scoreboard here. Bitcoin is ever going to earn that digital gold narrative to be solidified forever. Now, as of today, Bitcoin is trading right at around $85,000 of unit. Gold value is coming right at about $4,100 an ounce, and one Bitcoin currently buys you about 20 ounces of gold. And at this current price, 30 ounces of gold would mean $125,000 Bitcoin. 40 ounces of gold coming in at $167,000.

This is an automatic target. Price equals the ounce times gold. And a history has shown us that this gap can close much faster than people can expect or are ready for. In our September Bitcoin Golden Signal video, the reading was right at around 17.8 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. October has come at us quick, and we've risen very aggressively against this, now trading at 20 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. Now during that time frame, gold has remained strong, holding above its $4,000 per ounce mark. But as you can see, Bitcoin in that same time frame has been gaining some ground when you're valuing it in dollars as well. The move people want is not a dollar bounce. It is Bitcoin buying more of the oldest monetary asset on the planet. And this is a valuation that gets a lot of people screwed up because we keep valuing Bitcoin in dollars. Arguably fiat trash that will be inflated to oblivion. And if you think back to our last bull market, the all-time high for Bitcoin was $126,000 a unit for a American dollar, but the real all-time high wasn't that. The real all-time high for Bitcoin in the last cycle actually came in in 24, December of 2024, where you were earning 40 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. Now, during Timmer, Fidelity's director of Global Macro is making the case for owning both. His words, I continue to like both gold and Bitcoin, but especially Bitcoin is interesting right now.

For one, we broke through resistance at $80,000 and are now targeting $100K. I feel like me and this guy are on the same level. He's targeting and talking about the local resistance here at $100K that's been marked on my charts for quite some time. He's acknowledging that gold can be strong, but Bitcoin can be stronger. Now, the ratio here is Bitcoin's dollar price divided by one troy ounce of gold, at roughly $86,000, $85,000, and $4100 per ounce gold, we're sitting at 20.7 ounces of gold per BTC.

So if we were to rise from this current level where we're sitting on the Bitcoin to gold ratio up to the 40 ounces per Bitcoin level, that would instantly make a Bitcoin in dollar terms worth $160,000 at a $4,000 gold price.

And if we see gold defend itself in this potential washout and act aggressively defending itself at $4,000, Bitcoin can still get back to that 40 ounce level that it was just at very, very quickly. If we do see gold rise and bounce off this $4,000 level, Bitcoin will have to rise more. But if gold is to come off of this historic pattern, this arguably stagflationary pump has just went through, the ratio can improve with less dollar upside. Even a slight improvement on the gold to Bitcoin ratio, say we rise to 21 ounces, we will be rising in dollar amounts to around $87,000 a unit for Bitcoin, which is our current resistant spot that we banged our head on a few times in a row so far. And that's where we keep screwing up as crypto enthusiasts, or really hard value enthusiasts, is that we keep valuing gold and Bitcoin in dollars, when really the correlation should be straight up from Bitcoin to gold, or potentially even Bitcoin to housing. And without any other ETF inflows or external forces, just that translation of gold and Bitcoin performing together and Bitcoin rising to that 40 ounce level, that is a massive, massive move in terms of our buying power. This 40 ounce per Bitcoin level is not invention. This was recently visited in 2024, and a lot of people missed this, because we're valuing this in the wrong asset. Bitcoin's already been there. The gap from 20.7 looks big, but does it really require years for Bitcoin to rise against gold by another 90% move? The history of this chart says this happens in months.