Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700

Nik Bhatia (0:00)

Bitcoin down sharply as the moves around oil continue to dominate global markets. I have 16 of the charts I'm watching most closely.

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Layer. I'm Nik Bhatia. Let's get right into the candles. We'll start with Bitcoin Daily Candles here. We can see today's move down 3%.

That's after a move yesterday of down about 3%, so consecutive moves. And Bitcoin has lost this 82,700 level that I've been watching closely. Now, we are watching an area from 71 to around 74,000 that has the potential to come in as support for Bitcoin. This would be an important level if Bitcoin can bounce off of here because technically it would be a higher low based off of these levels in the 60s and even upper 50s that we experienced throughout the summer. So we'd like to see Bitcoin find support somewhere between 71 and 74, 75 here. But there is some congestion here at around 77 So let's see how Bitcoin responds. A reminder that we are currently in a negative liquidity environment, something we track very closely at the Bitcoin Layer. And in that negative liquidity environment, we can expect Bitcoin's returns to be mitigated by an increase in global rates, increase in volatility, and a strong dollar, which we have seen quite a bit here in October already, just eight days into the month. Getting into some more candles, and I will show you Bitcoin versus gold. Now, this first, before we get to Bitcoin versus gold, this is gold's price versus the dollar. You could see here a move from 4,700 or so to 4,100 over the last month and a half, August, September being tough months for gold, and that was that strong US dollar. Now, you're up against a trend line. I'll zoom out that we've had in effect since August of 25, connecting August of 25 to August of 26

Zooming in a little bit now, you can see that in yesterday's price action, we dipped below, right now bumping up against it. So a very key level here for gold. Might we see a gold breakdown versus the dollar here? That is entirely possible. Let's watch this price action very closely around 4,100. Getting over to the next, and I have daily candles here throughout today's show because sometimes we wanna look a little bit more zoomed in to see what are some of the rate of change impulses around the edges of the market. So daily candles here, and you can see three straight days off of a little bit of an evening star.

Doji here, a candle that we saw on Monday, October 5th, and now Bitcoin falling versus gold above 20, almost touching 21 now, back below 20 We'll target this area around 17 to 18 for Bitcoin to come in here, find some support, and then start to make another higher low. As you can see this, I'll zoom out so you can see the huge down move that we experienced in 2025

Then a consolidation pattern. Bitcoin broke out versus gold as it did versus the dollar in August.

A little collection, and we want to see this continue to step higher. But before we can get to 21 and above, we have to consolidate here above 17, 18

Going to the next chart, we'll look at two-year yields on the US Treasury.

A little bit of a reversal, putting in some action here, but we'll have to see whether this can stay below now four and three quarters. I like to think of two-year yields in these quarter point increments because two-year Treasury yields give us some sense of where the policy rate is going to be over the next one to two years time. The policy rate right now, around 4 percent, twos at four and three quarters, suggests that there are still some hikes in the market. We want to be cognizant of the two-year yield and what it's telling us. It's telling us that the bias is to higher policy rates. That's something that affects the overall shape of the yield curve. And that yield curve shape is something that gives us a beat on liquidity.

We watch asset-based liquidity at the Bitcoin Layer. Go to the bitcoinlayer.com. Check out our free TBL Liquidity Index and a hundred other free charts for you. Again, the bitcoinlayer.com. And start with our Liquidity Index for free. Hopping over to the 10-year yield. And this move that we have today of down 5 basis points, it's pretty much the first move of this sort, meaning putting in a material reversal pattern. Looking at, this is why I'm looking at daily candles today. I'm looking for these reversal patterns. I'm looking for the daily price action, where we can see some rate of change changes. Bit, sorry, the 10-year yield now down almost 6 basis points on the day, coming off of these tall wicks over the last 2 days, perhaps. The 10-year yield finally catching a bid.