Bitcoin Is Headed to $300K and Nobody's Ready | Bill Barhydt

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Bill Barhydt (0:29)

If you look at the charts that everybody likes to show with global M2 versus Bitcoin, they're all saying Bitcoin should be around 250 to 300K ish in that range.

That feels right to me based upon where the markets are going. I was at the treasury conference yesterday and I heard somebody say, hey, if Bitcoin is not at 300K in 24 months, then my thesis on Bitcoin was completely wrong.

Anthony Pompliano (0:56)

What's going on guys? Today we've got a great conversation with Bill Barhydt. He's the founder and CEO of Abra. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Bitcoin, the macro backdrop, why Bitcoin is likely to be worth much, much more in the future, but why is it not there yet? Then we also talk about tokenization, artificial intelligence, agents and what's going on in the RIA space. And then we dig into Abra and what he's doing there with liquidity, lending and many other things that most people are interested in. Hope you enjoy this conversation with Bill Barhydt.

All right, Bill, it seems like Bitcoin is at a very interesting point right now. Every single micro economic point says that Bitcoin should be lower. You've got oil at higher prices. You've got the 10 year blowing out over 5%.

You've got an interest rate hike. All that should be headwinds. Bitcoin is higher though. Clarity failed. Bitcoin is higher. What does that tell you about the price of Bitcoin and where it could be going?

Bill Barhydt (1:41)

Well, okay, so I do believe that Bitcoin tracks liquidity to a large degree. But I also think there's a certainty slash uncertainty factor that has played into all of this with the Trump trade and everything else going on around clarity. I think having clarity that we're not going to get clarity was in and of itself a good thing because I think markets just don't like ambiguity, right? And I think the next level of ambiguity is the midterms, which are probably not going to end well for this administration, but at least we'll have less ambiguity, right? I think the markets, the bond markets have known all along that rates are going higher, at least in the short term. And so I think that this administration desperately wanted lower rates. That ship sailed a while ago, and it's not going to happen now. I thought maybe they would figure it out with yield curve control, but it just wasn't going to happen.

And so I think to a degree, you know, Bitcoin has done runs with higher rates than where we're at now, right? But it's the liquidity that ultimately Bitcoin needs to catch up to. And I think that the gap between... If you look at the charts that everybody likes to show with global M2 versus Bitcoin, they're all saying Bitcoin should be around 250 to 300K-ish in that range.

That feels right to me based upon where the markets are going. I was at the Treasury Conference yesterday and I heard somebody say, hey, if Bitcoin's not at 300K in 24 months, then my thesis on Bitcoin was completely wrong, right? And I probably should have just dumped it at 70K.

Anthony Pompliano (3:22)

So if Bitcoin is not at 300K in 24 months, this person said that...

Bill Barhydt (3:27)

My thesis on Bitcoin was just wrong because, you know, like, it's not, it's, right.

Or, right, I'm super excited that, you know, we've instituted austerity, the government is acting responsibly, and, you know, I'm super bullish on the future of our monetary system and, you know, the banking system. And obviously, you know, the point being that none of that is going to happen in this person's opinion, and therefore Bitcoin should continue along its, you know, previous trajectory of shrinking volatility with runups in between, which we thought maybe that wasn't going to happen, but it looks like that is the case, where we are going to basically continue these runups at least for one more cycle with shrinking volatility. At least that's how I see it playing out. And then we'll see, right? I mean, it does make sense that as it gets more and more adopted, the interest cycle volatility should shrink. And that's, look, if the lows were in in the 50s, then the volatility shrunk significantly from the last cycle, which happened versus the previous cycle, right? And so if that continues, we'll get Bitcoin at a couple of million, but at a slower rate.