Bitcoin Is Flashing the Biggest Buy Signal Since 2022

**Matt Crosby** (0:00)
It doesn't have to be all in. You need to think granually, probabilistically, rather than ones or zeros, black and white. No one's gonna buy the exact bottom and sell the exact top. It just doesn't happen. If you DCA and chill, not only do you get a good sleep at night, but you're gonna get a hell of a better entry than a vast majority of people who are gonna miss the bottom entirely and just watch Bitcoin skyrocket before you have to FOMO back in close to those highs and miss another bull market.

**John Gill** (0:24)
Bitcoin is pumping today back up to 64K. A lot of people are wondering if the bulls are back in control or if this is just another fake out before the bears take us down to Goblin Town. Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that trying to pick the bear market bottom is fun, but it would be a lot more fun if Bitcoin would just yeet to Valhalla. I'm your host John Gill and today is Tuesday, July 14th. And today we are joined by Matt Crosby. Matt is the Director of Research and Analytics for Bitcoin Magazine Pro, specializing in on-chain analysis, Bitcoin market cycles, macroeconomic trends and data-driven investment strategies. Matt is a friend of the show, a regular here and a favorite of all the fans of Milk Road. So if that sounds good to you, Matt's brought a ton of charts today. I'm really excited for this conversation. So if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe, share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitget Stocks 2 with real liquidity, real dividends and Securitize the regulated rails for tokenization. And without further ado, welcome to The Milk Road Show. Matt, how are you sir?

**Matt Crosby** (1:22)
I'm very well, thank you. How are you John?

**John Gill** (1:25)
You know, I'm doing well. I'm really excited for this conversation. I've watched you with LG. A lot of times I always learn something and you always have kind of like a sort of like meta narrative take on the market. And I'm really curious what your updated outlook is here. I've heard people calling for a double bottom, triple bottom. A lot of people are saying we're going to 40k or below, which still sounds crazy to me.
But maybe let's just start with this. How are you thinking about Bitcoin today? What's your updated outlook on the market? And yeah, what's up in your world, Matt?

**Matt Crosby** (1:54)
So I guess very short term, we have had a little bit of a positive jump today. I think that was in reaction to the more bullish CPI news that we got coming in under expectations. Maybe inflation isn't quite as high. Maybe there's not going to be as many federal rate hacks as we may be anticipating this year. So it is a little bit volatile at the minute. But I guess big picture things, macro, is the question on everyone's lips, has Bitcoin actually bottomed out somewhere around that 57, 58k? Is that the low? Are we going to go lower? Is it going to last another few months?
It's the million dollar question. I'm going to be honest, I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know exactly what's going to happen. No one does. If they do, then they probably have the best snake oil in town. But what I can say is we have a lot of data points pointing towards this, at the very, very least, being a very asymmetric opportunity to consider, at the very least, accumulating some discounted BTC. The way I'm looking at it right now is it's bio and get them free satoshis. As I said, from the unchained dates, from some macroeconomic perspectives, from some technical derivatives, all of these little pieces of the jigsaw coming together, are again just providing some probabilistic confluence that right now Bitcoin is for buying.

**John Gill** (3:06)
Got you. You can't predict the future and a lot of people are trying to pick the bottom. But you're saying, setting that question aside, this is a great entry and a great opportunity on Bitcoin. I think that's a great perspective and I think that's been the way I've been looking at this too.
Do we want to hop into some charts and start breaking down what you're seeing going on on chain?

**Matt Crosby** (3:25)
Yeah, sure. So we'll jump straight into it here on the realized price. Probably one of the most popular metrics we've been seeing recently. A lot of people are saying, I'm not going to buy until Bitcoin reaches the low $50,000 region, the high $40,000. Everyone was looking towards that 200 weekly moving average, which is currently around $63,000 and we've been chopping and hovering around that.