Bitcoin Is Compressing… And a VIOLENT Move Could Be Next

John Gillen (0:00)

Setting aside the AI capex boom, setting aside the unwind of leverage, setting aside the bullish fundamentals that are driving crypto, the third year of a presidential term is always the most bullish for markets, and it doesn't matter if it's a Republican or a Democrat, and that's been true going all the way back to World War II.

SPEAKER_2 (0:14)

What's up, everybody, it's LGDooSet here, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that promised mom we would not use leverage again. But I never said when I was actually gonna start that promise. Today is October 19th, 2026 If Bitcoin hits 83,500, hold on to your ass. That's what John literally told me moments ago before we started recording. And we're gonna be watching the price very closely as we go today on the show. And crypto holding this range has not only been encouraging to people like John and myself and the rest of the crypto community, it's a little bit validating because equities are looking a little bit shaky right now and not nearly as bad as the rest of the macro. And look at who's bucking the trend. Good old crypto. We'll talk about all that and more, and even make time at the end to talk our favorite alts and portfolio in our Milk Road PRO after hours. An extra session you get access to for just a dollar at the link below. Otherwise, just a little reminder to like and subscribe because we love your support. We love our audience. You guys have been everything to us. And all those little likes and all those little subs always matter a lot. Enough of me.

John, what's up, buddy?

John Gillen (1:13)

I did not say hold on to your ass. I would never. You said that to me. I said, hold on to your butts. That's the Jurassic Park reference.

SPEAKER_2 (1:20)

Oh, come on.

John Gillen (1:21)

That's.

SPEAKER_2 (1:23)

Ass is not that bad.

John Gillen (1:26)

Well, it's still a butt. You can hold on to whatever you got if Bitcoin starts to break out to the upside. That's what I'm excited about. But hello, LG. Good morning. How are you?

SPEAKER_2 (1:34)

Hello. Yes. Hello. Yeah. Anyways, let's get to it. Why is 83 500 such an important level to you? Why does that matter?

John Gillen (1:40)

Because the bulls have been defending 81 K and the bears have not been able to break us down below 80 K. And it seems like we've seen a lot of leverage unwinding in the equities markets, in risk assets in general, and Bitcoin is just holding up and honey badgering here and chopping sideways and not giving up an ass about what's going on. So but I think that if we see Bitcoin start to move to the upside and start to flip some of these levels that had had been testing before and holding them, that could be a sign that we're about to move higher and break out to the upside. The Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin are compressing to levels that are really tight, really close, and it seems like Bitcoin is going to pick a direction here. If it chooses to go to the upside, we could see Bitcoin break 90, 92, 95 and really make a sizable move higher here. So I think it's something to watch out for. Right now, we're trading a little bit above 81k, below 82k, but it's not clear yet what's going to happen. I've been expecting, you know, maybe we retest 78k, you know, that would be kind of like the support I'd be looking to on the downside. The bears haven't been able to get us even close to that. So now I think that the risk is maybe we get a recover here. Maybe we start to see some of these macro headwinds start to clear. Maybe Bitcoin flips 83.5, holds that as support. And then maybe we make a run up into the 90s. So that's kind of what I've been watching for. And that would be the thing I'd be looking for. If we flip 83k, 83.5-ish, hold that as support, hold on to your butt because the mid 90s could be next.

SPEAKER_2 (3:00)

Wow, I like that. What are Bollinger Bands for people that maybe don't know that? Not everybody's a TA maxi like you.

John Gillen (3:07)

The Bollinger Bands. So Peter Bollinger is a technical analyst who came up with these Bollinger Bands. And it's basically like, I can't remember right now at the top of my head what it is, but it's like trailing price history of like the 90th percentile or 10th percentile or whatever it is, of like where the price has been recently. And basically what it's saying is that the volatility is coming down, and those trailing indicators are starting to compress around where Bitcoin's price action is. And eventually when the Bollinger Bands get closer and closer together, eventually price picks a direction and volatility picks up, and then that spread widens and the chart basically breaks out one way or the other. It's usually like a good indicator that that is likely to happen when that compression starts to happen, because it means that the historic volatility, like the normal behavior of the chart and the price action for that market, is getting to a place where it's gotten lower than it is historically. And so usually that reverts to the mean, price action moves, volatility picks up, and the Bollinger Bands widen again.