Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold

Nik Bhatia (0:00)

The price of one Bitcoin is 20 times the price of one ounce of gold. But there are 138 ounces of monetary gold that exist in the world for every one Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin has a potential 7x move if it is to catch gold sometime in the future. Let's break it down.

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Layer. I'm Nik Bhatia. Today, I want to show you TBL Pulse, our incredible new data terminal that gives you free access to a ton of macro and liquidity data, including our proprietary TBL liquidity index. This index is available to you for free at the bitcoinlayer.com, but it's not just TBL liquidity index that you can view for free.

So much macro data, including our top 10 charts to understand liquidity and macro and their effects on the Bitcoin price. Let's start with our TBL liquidity index, which you can see here again, this is available to you for free at the bitcoinlayer.com.

And what do we see zooming out about three years? A massive dip in liquidity to start 2026 And then over the past month, another huge leg down and liquidity now at 52.7. This is close to our 50 midline, which separates expansion from contraction. Now, although looking back approximately one year, liquidity is still in expansion. You can see that rate of change matters more than anything for these markets and the rate of change on liquidity appears to be quite negative. Now over here, which is available to TBL pros and TBL Pulse members exclusively, this TBL liquidity indicator, you can see turned red back in August. We were able to confirm that mid September and liquidity still in the deep red zone. That means that TBL liquidity indicator currently a sell 25 days ago. That's when we triggered it. Now Bitcoin is up 12% since that sell trigger. You might be wondering why did TBL get this signal wrong. Our TBL liquidity index is a derivative of macro variables exclusively. There is no Bitcoin input to TBL liquidity. This allows us to look at just macro, including the dollar, treasury yields, and understand what is the impulse, what is the condition on the Bitcoin markets. Now, while the condition is currently negative, Bitcoin performs very well. This tells me a lot about Bitcoin right now in its cycle. Bitcoin has clearly entered an early stage of recovery. That is coming off of a deep capitulation throughout most of 2026 I have a bunch of charts that I want to show you. Let's continue down. Relative returns. This is statistically your favorite chart. We're going to be introducing a compound annual growth rate chart as well, because we know you guys love to toggle this around and play with the returns. This Bitcoin trailing one year down 31% versus a very positive performance here for the S&P 500 up about 15% trailing a year. Gold up around 5% now trailing a year. Zoom out to three years. That's when you see Bitcoin start to outperform some of these asset classes. And then, of course, on a seven-year time horizon, Bitcoin now almost up 1000%.

That compares to less than 200% for gold and stocks over the last seven years. A great chart here. And keep coming back because we are going to introduce new charts every single week and bring you the highest signal, including statistically analyzing which charts you are all looking at, and then bubble those up for you. And we do have a new section here that I'm going to show you in a second. We have a watch list here. These are some of the metrics that I watch on a daily basis. That's why it's called Nick's Watch List. Remember that TBL Pulse, I selfishly designed a lot of this terminal for my own usage, and our team is doing an incredible job of taking that vision and bringing you so much actionable information and a lot of it completely for free.

Technical analysis. This is a section that I have built up in order to show you at home, the levels that I am watching. We're going to get our Bitcoin versus Gold technical analysis lines on here within the next couple of days. And you can see that on the Bitcoin chart, and I will zoom in about, let's do year to date, and you can see this line at around $82,000, which I have flagged for several weeks. This continues to be the key level for me, around $82,000 to $83,000. Above it, Bitcoin is gaining support, gaining some momentum, shedding the embedded shorts in the market below it, and you open up this area all the way back down to the $73,000 area. So a $10,000, not gap per se, but a zone that I think it might want to fill if Bitcoin is not able to hold that $82,000 level. We did several episodes this summer on the cold card incident, and a lot of you have been rethinking your setup ever since. My takeaway is that self-custody works, and it's best when no single device or vendor carries all the weight. CASA, today's sponsor, secures your Bitcoin with five keys instead of one, and it's held on hardware from different manufacturers plus your phone, and CASA holds one key for recovery. No single vendor can touch your funds, and neither can CASA because moving funds takes three keys, and CASA only has one. Their most popular offering, CASA Premium, they ship an onboarding kit right to your house with the hardware devices, the Faraday bags, and everything else that you will need. They pair you with an advisor who will walk you through the setup on a call, and the security advisory team is available for you for as long as you are a member. Check out CASA at casa.io, and use code TBL for 10% off of your subscription. So with TBL Pulse, you're able to track my technical analysis lines, and this chart will update in real time. So if you zoom into the month, for example, you will be able to watch the price action on a much more zoomed-in basis, and see these levels that I'm watching. Remember that at the Bitcoin Layer, we're not just thinking about liquidity and macro conditions on Bitcoin. We're thinking about the Bitcoin price itself, and the signal that that gives us, as well as on-chain ETF options data around the Bitcoin ecosystem. And Johan Bergman, our head of Bitcoin research, does a tremendous job rights analysis every Wednesday. And he has an entire Bitcoin tab over here to give you at home so much signal in terms of how Bitcoin is functioning. I'll hop over to the Bitcoin tab, and you can see the valuation and trend metrics. That is what anchors Johan's framework. We're combining his valuation and trend frameworks with TBL liquidity signal. We've crossed them to give you a master signal. We're still coming up with the name for this master signal. Essentially, it's Bitcoin crossed with liquidity, and that signal is available to everybody signed up for TBL Pro and TBL Pulse. It's on the home page. I'm not going to show it to you. Too spicy for YouTube, but check out the bitcoinlayer.com if you want to get involved. Now I'm going to show you our top 10 charts, which are also on the home page. Here we are at our top 10 You see the MOVE index and the US dollar index. These are the two forces on liquidity that are stronger than anything else right now in the financial sphere.