Bitcoin Broke A Major Trend That Signals A Massive Move Ahead!

Jamie Coutts (0:00)

Forward returns are overwhelmingly bullish. It was pretty decisive that it was a change of trend. Basically, it deployed all but like 5% of the portfolio cash. It still needs to break sort of 80,000 with a bit of gusto, and it hasn't done that yet. Bitcoin is the most hypersensitive asset in the world to liquidity signals. US interest expense as a percent of GDP is now, I think, at record highs. For the first time ever, my Bitcoin allocation is less than 50%.

I think this is actually a very different cycle, and for the obvious reasons, tokenization, AI agents.

Ran Neuner (0:34)

Bitcoin is your biggest. What's your number two?

Jamie Coutts (0:36)

Ethereum and Solana are the next two.

Ran Neuner (0:38)

Which ones in particular are you bullish about?

Jamie Coutts (0:40)

One that I think has got outsized return potential is...

Ran Neuner (0:44)

Let's talk about altcoins. How do you see this cycle? Altcoins or Bitcoin?

Jamie Coutts (0:47)

The one thing I'll raise here is a little bit of a red flag.

Ran Neuner (0:53)

So not many people have had the same view about this move that I've had, but there is one that has a similar view, and I want to bring him on to the channel. Jamie, welcome, bro. How are you?

Jamie Coutts (1:03)

I'm good, Ran. How are you, mate?

Ran Neuner (1:04)

Good. Jamie, I wonder when you look at this move in Bitcoin, I think we have a similar view here, but you call this an impulse move, right? I think that's how you name this move in Bitcoin, and I'm dying to get to know what this impulse move actually means. So maybe walk me through it.

Jamie Coutts (1:21)

So an impulse move is a complete change in character. So we had a downtrend, we had a bear market that started in Q3 of last year, Q4.

And ever since then, we had these consistent down moves with a small 25 to 30 cent retracement, pretty much equal in dimension. And then suddenly we had on different indicators that I use, momentum indicators, we had this deceleration or bullish divergences starting to form under the base of it, which have always been a strong sign of a change of trend, but not necessarily timing the trend. And then we had the impulse move. And the impulse move, if you look at it on a, not to get too nerdy and statistical here, but like a 10% move today in Bitcoin is not as meaningful, well, sorry, is more meaningful, I should say, than it was several years ago because of the volatility profile. So you normalize for volatility and you look at all the big moves over two days that we had after the Besant decision on the treasury buybacks. And you look at that and you say, right, well, Bitcoin, this move is actually, I think, the fourth or fifth largest move and you normalize it for volatility. And when we look at these statistically, the forward returns are overwhelmingly bullish. There are instances where there have been reversals from this trend, but statistically, it's been bullish. And the size of the moves going forward have also been very bullish. And I did a lot of stuff to sort of look at that on, looking at it versus sort of a random study. And it was pretty decisive that it was a change of trend.

So I was bullish on the move. I had been adding in July, basically deployed all but like 5% of the portfolio cash in July, and then deployed the rest of it on the back of the impulse move.

Ran Neuner (3:14)

So maybe just like when you say July, July was in the peak of that 77 days of zero movement, and nothing was happening. I can't remember this because I was streaming here, and I was trying to make this period exciting, and it was really one of the toughest periods of my work life. What was telling you exactly? I know you talk about divergences, but what exactly was telling you that there's a move coming up here? I was looking at one indicator which was the Bollinger bandwidth, but that came much later than the move. So the Bollinger bandwidth only got very, very, very compressed on the 13th of August, which was when I put my chips in the table. I was like, look, there's got to be a move here. We're on the 200 week moving average.

I think the next move must be up, and I placed my chips on up, and it actually happened. But I'm wondering, what was your telltale sign here?

Jamie Coutts (4:06)