Big Mac and Card Show Clash Over NFL Two-Point Conversion Analytics

Craig Carton (0:01)

Here we go, yo!

Here we go! 318 Carton Show, Big Mac, gorgeous Monday. Afternoon in New York City, the New York Giants take care of business against the Winless Titans now. Boy, Robin Saul's having a tough time. And the New York Jets, in any of the year which they would have just collapsed, once the Detroit Lions got up, they fought back, came back, tied the game now.

Chris McMonigle (0:25)

A moral victory guy for you, huh?

Craig Carton (0:26)

Well, you know what? I know I'm not winning a Super Bowl.

Chris McMonigle (0:28)

So you're just happy losing by only a touchdown.

Craig Carton (0:31)

No, I'm not happy losing. But I view the New York Jets this year the way I view going to a movie. They're entertainment. And I may not like the end of a movie, but I'm entertained by the movie. The New York Jets gave me entertaining football yesterday. And that's a major step forward. They're competitive. They're fighters.

They have an offense that obviously you saw yesterday. It's going to be pretty damn good.

Defensively, they stunk, in my opinion. In the second half, they did. Their special teams is tragic. Back to back weeks now. But the New York Jets have turned a corner. Well, let's go over that show quick.

Chris McMonigle (1:05)

It's not terrible. It's not anything to really go nuts about like Green Bay.

Craig Carton (1:08)

No.

Chris McMonigle (1:09)

It's probably being overblown a little bit.

Craig Carton (1:11)

The argument of, do you spike the ball versus take a timeout? That is not an egregious mistake by Aaron Glenn. What he did against Green Bay was egregious.

What he did yesterday, not egregious.

Chris McMonigle (1:24)

They had enough time where it shouldn't have been a Hail Mary at the end of that.

Like, it wasn't great clock management and they should be better at it. But I agree with you. The decision making wasn't egregious.

Craig Carton (1:35)

Now, let me ask you a question about this because I fight this tooth and nail.

SPEAKER_3 (1:39)

Yeah.

Craig Carton (1:39)

This is not an Aaron Glenn thing. This is like the new wave of analytics thing, right?

SPEAKER_3 (1:43)

Oh, yeah.

Chris McMonigle (1:43)

The two touchdowns.

Craig Carton (1:45)

I don't understand. I never will. So don't explain to me.

Chris McMonigle (1:48)

I mean, it's easy to understand.

SPEAKER_3 (1:50)

Now, it's stupid. You just don't like it.

Craig Carton (1:51)

It's because it doesn't make sense.

Chris McMonigle (1:53)

It does make sense.

Craig Carton (1:54)

It's do you go for two when you're down two touchdowns and you score a touchdown?

Chris McMonigle (2:00)

Yes.

Craig Carton (2:00)

I say no, you don't. You kick the extra point, you get within seven. If you're capable now of scoring another touchdown and you want to go for the win, have at it.

Chris McMonigle (2:11)

Right.

Craig Carton (2:12)

But I fundamentally disagree with the analytics of going for two there to make it six.

Chris McMonigle (2:18)

That's what I don't understand about your argument, though. Like if you say you're willing to go for two at the end of the game to win.

Craig Carton (2:25)

To win the game?

Chris McMonigle (2:25)

Why not go for two in that?

Craig Carton (2:26)

Because I can't win the game there. I cannot win the game on that spot.

Chris McMonigle (2:29)

If you get the two-point conversion, you do.

Craig Carton (2:31)

No, I don't, because I'm down two touchdowns. Remember, I'm willing to go for the win, kind of like the same sitting at the Lions week one.

Chris McMonigle (2:37)

But if you get the two-point conversion for eight, it is now a six-point game.

Craig Carton (2:40)

I'm still losing. I'm trailing.

Chris McMonigle (2:42)

A touchdown wins you the game. All you're doing is choosing which two-point conversion you're going for to win the game.

Craig Carton (2:47)

I understand that, but I don't win the game the first time I do it.

Chris McMonigle (2:52)

But you set yourself up for an extra point win.

Craig Carton (2:55)

If I'm going to buy into what the announcer said yesterday, because I'm not sure which game you were listening to. I know you're watching them both. That going for two is basically a 50-50 proposition these days in the NFL.

SPEAKER_3 (3:06)

I accept that as factual.

Craig Carton (3:08)

To me, I want to get within seven so that again, this is a second half decision, not first quarter decision, second half decision. I don't have that many possessions left.

Chris McMonigle (3:19)

That's the point.

Craig Carton (3:20)