Are We Verging on Another Escalation in the Middle East? | Ali Vaez

Demetri Kofinas (0:00)

What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kofinas, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world. My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Ali Vaez, Deputy Program Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Crisis Group, and one of the most closely watched analysts of Iran's foreign and nuclear policy, having played a direct role in the negotiations that produced the 2015 nuclear deal that the Trump administration withdrew from in 2018

By the end of today's conversation, you will have a clearer understanding of where the war between Iran and the United States actually stands, eight months following the commencement of Operation Epic Fury. How Iran has turned its control of the Strait of Hormuz into a tool for pressuring the global economy, what this conflict has cost Washington, Tehran and their respective allies, and why the window for a durable diplomatic solution may be closing, and what an escalation of hostilities would look like for the region, its geopolitics, and the global economy. Ali and I spent the first hour of our conversation establishing the state of play eight months into Operation Epic Fury, how the war has metastasized into a wider regional confrontation involving the Houthis in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia, and what the fighting has cost the United States militarily, including a significant depletion of its missile interceptor stockpiles and the loss of several regional bases. We also discuss how the war has reshaped Iran's internal politics, economy, and society, and why coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv appears to be breaking down. The second hour is devoted to a conversation about how the United States and its Gulf allies have kept oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's blockade, and why that work around is not sustainable. We also discuss how Iran's national security doctrine has shifted since the war began, the state of its nuclear ambitions, the degradation of Western intelligence networks inside the country, and what a new, more durable security architecture for the Middle East might require, including whether any of this is achievable before this war ends, whether it will take a new administration in the White House to see it through. If you want access to all of this conversation, go to hiddenforces.io/subscribe and join our premium feed, which you can listen to on your mobile device using your favorite podcast app, just like you're listening to this episode right now. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius Community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, discounted access to third-party research and analysis, and in-person events like our intimate dinners and weekend retreats, you can also do that on our subscriber page. And if you still have questions, feel free to send an email to info at hiddenforces.io, and I or someone from our team will get right back to you. And with that, please enjoy this timely and deeply informative conversation with my guest, Ali Vaez.

Ali Vaez, welcome to Hidden Forces.

Ali Vaez (3:16)

Great pleasure to be with you.

Demetri Kofinas (3:17)

The pleasure is all mine, Ali. It's great having you on the show. I've been reading your work in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy Magazine and the New York Times, among other publications, and I've been following you on Twitter for some time. So I'm excited to finally get you on the show.

I don't want to assume that everyone already knows who you are. You're the Deputy Program Director of the Crisis Group for Middle East and North Africa. So give us a little bit of a sense of your background. How did you become an expert on Iranian affairs? And what is the nature of your foreign policy experience?

Ali Vaez (3:50)

Well, it's actually a peculiar story. And I don't want to get too much into its details, but I just share the basics with you. Interestingly, I've actually published this in Foreign Affairs. I have an essay in 2023 that's called The Long Twilight of the Islamic Republic, in which I intertwine my personal story because I actually studied pure sciences, biotechnology and nuclear physics. That's where I got my master's and PhD and even I did a post-doc in pure sciences until 2009 when I decided all of a sudden to completely shift gears and come into the policy world. But I realized I didn't have the technical background and so I went to get another master's degree in international relations in DC and that's how I switched. So I came out of school in DC in 2011 which coincided with a very dark period in US-Iran relations with nuclear negotiations not going anywhere and the risk of war being pretty high.