Are Rumors of an Imminent Russian Attack Warranted? | Yaroslav Trofimov

Demetri Kofinas (0:00)

What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kofinas, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world. My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign affairs correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, who has written extensively on the Ukraine War, US-Russia relations, the Middle East, China, and other related topics.

By the time this episode is over, you will have an updated understanding of the state of the war that is still raging in Ukraine, including recent speculation around CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow, whether Russia is in a position to expand the conflict through a direct confrontation with NATO, how the war against Iran has altered Russia's calculus, and why US-China relations serve as the critical strategic backdrop for forecasting fallout for Europe, the US, and Asia's largest economies over the next few years. Yaroslav and I begin our conversation by trying to make sense of the war, its origins, its stakes, and the prospects for its near-term conclusion. We assess claims related to the CIA Director's recent trip to Moscow, the form that any potential Russian attack on NATO could take, and what the Europeans can do to try and stop it. We also discuss the political turmoil surrounding a recent shake-up in President Zelensky's cabinet, the claims of corruption, and whether Western countries can be expected to continue supporting Ukraine in the face of a declining popularity for the war and mounting popular resistance movements being led by Europe's far-right parties. In the second hour, we turn to an examination of Western strategic thinking and the widening schism between Washington and Europe's largest capitals. We discuss why Yaroslav believes the West's difficulties begin with a flawed diagnosis of the war based on the comforting assumption that this is a fight over territory in the Donbas rather than a contest over the future of Europe, how the collapse of trust in legacy media is shaping public opinion on the continent, the ideological sympathy many on the right feel toward Moscow, the strategic consequences of the breakdown in relations between Washington and much of the rest of the world, the nature and limits of China's support for Russia, how the war against Iran is reshaping the strategic battlefield, and how all of these variables could reshape the international system in the next five years.

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Yaroslav Trofimov, welcome to Hidden Forces.

Yaroslav Trofimov (3:22)

Great to be on the show.

Demetri Kofinas (3:24)

It's great to have you on. I've been reading your articles in the Wall Street Journal for many years. You are, for those who don't know, the foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. How many years have you been in that position?

Yaroslav Trofimov (3:34)

Well, I actually joined the journal in the 20th century, in 1999

It's been a long ride with the journal. These current positions that I have, which is the chief foreign affairs correspondent, it's been since, I believe, 2018

Demetri Kofinas (3:49)

By saying the 20th century as opposed to 1999, it makes you sound much older than you are.

I like that. I'm older and more experienced. Before we start, Yaroslav, I'd love to learn a little bit more about you. Tell me a little bit about your life and career, and you're also Ukrainian. What has it been like to cover this war as someone who comes from this country?

Yaroslav Trofimov (4:09)

I left Ukraine in 1990 I left the country where it was still the Soviet Union, and I spent most of my career as a journalist and as a writer covering other people's wars. I was based in Baghdad shortly after the US invasion. I used to live in Kabul, and for more than five years covering the war in Afghanistan. Really, I only came back full time to Ukraine as a correspondent ahead of the Russian invasion and the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022