AOC as President in 2028?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Patrick Bet-David** (0:29)
I got one report that says how huge blow for Gavin Newsom as shock polls show Democrat 2020 White House rival streaking ahead. This one shows Kamala Harris is way ahead of him. Another one that just came out this morning with his numbers dropping. If you can go to my tweet, if you go to Twitter and then, Tom, I'm going to come to you with this one because you sent us these numbers this morning. Let's go to my Twitter account and go to the latest tweet that I have on what happened with AOC this morning. The last couple of years, you've heard me say it, AOC is going to be the primary candidate. I believe it's going to be her. If you can make that bigger, okay? Gavin Newsom's favorability among likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters has fallen from 58 to 38 in nine months.
While his ballot support dropped from 15 to 8 percent, meanwhile AOC holds a 55 percent net favorability compared to Newsom's 12 Tom, is this poll that you shared with us this morning showing the fact that AOC is closely getting ahead of Newsom?

**Tom Ellsworth** (1:36)
Yep. And I'm going to give you a quick case study that has three parts. Number one, I'm going to take you to some calcium numbers. Number two, I'm going to take you to net favorability. So favorability usually happens right before the polls come out. You know what I mean, Vinny? People's favorability starts rising, also the polls start moving. That's number two. And then number three, I'm going to tell you about the East-West effect. And then number four is the Newsom reaction. So number one, the calcium market, if we go the calcium market here, look at this. We are over 157, no, now 158 Look what has happened in the last week. Here's what's happened.
And the folks inside Cal-Shea, very, very, very, very helpful.
Here's what's gone on.
Gavin Newsom was 24% in the last 30 days. Gavin Newsom was 18% likelihood of getting the Democratic nomination. That's down from 24%. So in the last 30 days, he's been writing at 18%.
That's down six full points. And you know what that is? That is 25% down. AOC was 9%, Pat. In the last 30 days, she's risen to 15%.
That is six points up, which is plus 56% in the poll. John Ossoff, 12 to 16, up four. So right now, it's Newsom 18, AOC 15, Ossoff 14
That is what is really happening in real-time voting, and it's moving. Because remember, once you have 154 million, Pat, and the next person puts in, say, their 100 bucks on AOC, it takes a while to move the Titanic. There's $157 million of predictions in there. So number one, there is a huge shift going down. Newsom down 25%, AOC up 56% in the prediction. Second, favorability. This is what is absolutely shocking. Right now, Newsom is only plus 12% favorability. Who really doesn't like him? Who really likes him? Minus who really doesn't like him, what's left? 12%.
He's the last place of the six candidates. Right in front of him is Kamala Harris at plus 19 favorable. Do you know what AOC's favorability is right now? Plus 55
She is 43 points more favorable than Newsom, and you can see it shifting. And so now the next polls come out, which is this. As Gavin Newsom goes east toward New York, toward New Hampshire, he does worse because all of the California perceptions come with him. The East Coast voters' perception is that California has a lot of problems. Whether they're Democrat or Republican, that's what the average voter thinks. That makes sense. They hear about the fires, they hear about the corruption, they see Nick Shirley, they hear about the rail, and they're not Californians that say, well, I'm still a Democrat in California and I love Newsom, he's my guy. No, their East Coasters are saying, wow, you know what, things are happening in California. That follows Newsom and he does worse the further east he goes. Do you know what happens when AOC goes to Chicago and she goes to Detroit? She picks up momentum from younger people living there that say, you appear to be what I want. And I'm thinking more in terms of supporting a socialist, supporting a liberal. The more she goes west, the more she picks up. So what is happening now, I am declaring here and now. And remember, VT Analytics, you know, Pat graciously funded what we did for the election. Thank you again, Pat. And we on election night for the presidential election, we didn't pull back one state that we called all night. We called them, we called them when we felt. We were earlier in the networks and we called the election while we had Cenk on Zoom, which he really loved. It's one of the highlights of his life. And we were the first one to call it.