AI Safety Timeline Takeover, Bending Spoons Acquires Miro, iPhone Duo Reactions | Diet TBPN

**Jordi Hays** (0:01)
105 days.

**John Coogan** (0:03)
105 days till Christmas, get ready. Should we do a little bit of a news roundup? We have Y Combinator Dema Day going on today. We got Gary Tan coming on the show, 1125 Then we're going back to back with five different startups that are in this YC batch, doing everything from humanoid robots to satellites, to AI agents and credit cards, fintech. We're going all over the place, giving you a tour of what's going on in the startup world, which I personally enjoy because it's a good way to ground yourself in what's happening at the early stage. There's so much discussion about what's going on among the big labs and Apple, obviously, in the news yesterday.
It can be all encompassing. But the big story-

**Jordi Hays** (0:49)
It's time to talk to the future.

**John Coogan** (0:51)
Talk to the future, the next generation.

**Jordi Hays** (0:52)
No, that's really what it gives you a little bit of insight into what things are going to look like. A decade, some people don't think we're going to be here a decade.

**John Coogan** (1:00)
They don't. Since one of them-

**Jordi Hays** (1:02)
Never Black Pill. I saw a good post this morning.
Josha Box said, if you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by December 31st, 2030, you pay me 1 million USD. If not, I will pay you 10 million USD.

**John Coogan** (1:21)
That's a good joke.

**Jordi Hays** (1:24)
There's a lot of people out there that should take the bet, I think.

**John Coogan** (1:27)
Why? I mean, that's a whole joke.

**Jordi Hays** (1:31)
No, I know.

**John Coogan** (1:32)
Yeah. I mean, with a lot of these, the arguments break down, a lot of things break down. It's also just so difficult to put a P-Doom over time because you have to time bound it because general scientists will say humanity will go extinct eventually. The default number is 10 to the 100 years. That's a Google years from now. It's heat death of the universe. The stars collapse. Even in a billion years, we're going to be in trouble because the sun will be larger than the earth, will have expanded to become encompassing the earth. So you got to get off earth in the next billion years. We're working on that with SpaceX. Elon occasionally delayed. I think he's going to make it before the next billion years. The AI thing, obviously much more pressing, all sorts of hacks and agentic capabilities, lots of debate going on and a wall-to-wall press tour from a lot of the safety community. Daniel from AI 2027 was on Joe Rogan. It was an interesting list and he makes a lot of good points. He breaks things down for a broader audience and then Rogan will take him in these very funny directions, just being like, yeah, these AI agents are crazy. Let's talk about UFOs. It's actually like the meme. They're like, oh yeah, have you heard about remote viewing?
He breaks down remote viewing for him and Daniel has to be like, I'm a little more skeptical of that, but I'm a real believer in X-Risk.
I think the net effect is going to be more awareness about the topic, more discussion about the topic. It might just wind up muddling it because people now put X-Risk in the aliens, UFOs, remote viewing camp. It's like a fun thing that Joe Rogan talks about. It becomes more abstract as opposed to being more concrete, but I don't really know. We'll see. What did AI 2027 predict for September of 2026? He said, this is the stage where AI becomes economically disruptive and starts accelerating AI research itself. We got the second part. The labs are all saying we have an automated AI research intern.

**Jordi Hays** (3:35)
Just an intern.

**John Coogan** (3:36)
Yeah, but that's accelerating and the models seem to be getting better at a faster clip. The economically disruptive is the capability. Jobs. Junior software engineering faces major disruption. People managing and checking AI teams prosper. Junior software engineering major disruption.
We'll see if that plays out this month. The job market has been pretty strong. We map that there's something like 17,000 monthly AI related job losses, but that's less than 1% of the 1.7 million jobs that are lost every month. But then of course, there are more than 1.7 million new jobs and new hires because people change jobs a lot. And so that's often what's going on. Markets and politics. The scenario forecasts a 30% stock market rise during 2026 and a 10,000 person anti AI protest and growing defense contracts.