Afternoon podcast 9-9-26

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved.

SPEAKER_2 (0:31)

Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth, get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street, and the economy. Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:43)

Taking a look at Wall Street today, we see the S&P 500 down one half of one percent, the Dow down three quarters of one percent, the Nasdaq down two thirds of one percent, the Russell two thousand, uh-oh, down one point three percent.

The Russell's telling me the interest rates probably crept up. Gold up slightly, Bitcoin down slightly. Bitcoin's in at 78,261, crude oil up. Oh, that's the problem. Up four percent today to $96.70 a barrel.

No, it's not. Let's take a look at the treasuries. How did my boys do today? The 10-year 4.83. That's the start of a danger area for equities. Say in a five percent correction, it's starting to look more likely. Maybe a 10 percent correction. There'll be a shift as investors say, you know what, I've got a lot of money in the S&P 500 I've got a lot of money in risk stocks. I've got a lot of money in growth. And I see safety right there. I can get a 10-year treasury for 4.83. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates in the near term future, I can come back to stocks later. I think that's the general idea here. I would not read a lot into it. Later in the show, I'm going to talk about Apple, a lot about Apple's new product. And I want you to listen to that segment and think, do I want this product? Because I will tell you right out of the gate, the foldable phone called the Duo is something I will buy. I just want a slightly bigger screen, but I don't want an iPad. Something about sleeping with a foldable phone that's kind of a small iPad versus sleeping with an iPad. We're like, where did my, oh, there's my iPad. It's like, you can't hide it from it, you know? Meta was up 6.5% today. Wall Street liked the new AI agent Angle. They're starting to get their focus in on what we want to hear as investors.

Duolingo roasts Apple's iPhone Duo because they have the name Duo in their name.

I just think that's. Kind of stupid. That's where Duolingo should just keep their mouth shut. So Duolingo tweeted, They call it the iPhone. What? Oh, my God. Oh, my God. My SEO, my SEO. Do we need that kind of thought? If I own Duolingo, I would sell it right there on the spot. So the major averages extended their holiday short and weak decline. Boo!

Crude oil remained the top primary headwind with the U.S.-Iran conflict continuing to escalate. Excuse me. Apparently, the United States struck several Iranian oil tankers in response to an attack on one of its warships. Iran subsequently warned that it would escalate its counterstrikes as US tax continue.

The advance in crude oil provided a considerable boost to the energy sector up 1.1 percent, which stood alone in positive territory amongst the 11 S&P 500 sectors today.

Higher treasury yields added another layer of pressure after the Treasury Department announced plans to buy back $6 billion of long-term debt. It's not a lot. The announcement sparked a sharp increase in rates during the late morning and helped to push stocks to their session lows. Scott Bessett, he's not coming across as credible to me with how he's approaching the bond market. He's trying to manipulate something that shouldn't be manipulated.

SPEAKER_1 (4:36)

Washington's made things worse.

Rob Black (4:38)

The whole idea of you think you're bigger than the bond market is one of the craziest. I've always said the bond market's smart. It will figure itself out almost in real time. It will tell you where the concerns are in the US economy.

But Casey's General Store, they're a gas station that sells pizza. Mm, mm, pizza.

SPEAKER_2 (5:00)

Get in my belly!

Rob Black (5:03)

And for most Americans, pizza is a low cost, high calorie, high carbs meal that you can feed four people for roughly 20 bucks or less.

Good luck doing that elsewhere without eating ramen noodles.

So Casey's General was down 14.2% today, finishing as the weakest S&P 500 component. The company exceeded earnings per share and revenue expectations, but the reaction reflected some disappointment surrounding its inside operations and outlook for the remainder of the year. So I did not pull the trigger today on Casey's, but this is exactly something that I would be interested in. I like high quality nameeaps that pull back from their 52 week highs, or the 200 day moving average is another way of saying that in a similar vein. On Friday's big show, as Ed McMahon calls it, I'm going to go over on my strategy segment about what Charlie Munger taught me, even though I didn't know it was he who taught me, about buying companies that are great. I always said it with great total addressable markets, 20% from their highs. I'm going to do a whole strategy piece on it. So, because Casey's, I wasn't offended when I looked at the numbers. I have not looked at them very long. And I don't play that game of instant reaction I buy. But maybe tomorrow or the next day. Inside same store sales increased 3.2%. It was the gasoline, and gasoline dropped a lot in the last quarter, even though it's back up now. So, should we assume, do you see where I'm going at? Particular strength in pizzas, while grocery and general merchandise increased 2.7%.