Afternoon podcast 9-29-26

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Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved.

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Rob Black (0:43)

September, what a month. Bond yields have raised higher.

That's problematic because it gives investors a choice. Do I want to be in the S&P 500 and get 8% to 10% or do I want to get a higher yield for either 10 years or 30 years or even two years? The yields are attractive now. They haven't been attractive in years. So there's options. And that brings up the question of what happens if we keep taking higher? Because right now, the market's holding up. I think the market's saying, let's get past September. We expect oil to come down and we expect yields to come down. And that combination with earning season starting in about two and a half weeks should create a market rally in the end of the year, unless, of course, something happened with Putin or something happens in the Middle East. Right now, more oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz and out of the Middle East than I'm not going to say ever before. Then in the last six months, that is a positive development. We should start seeing lower energy prices, but we also have midterm elections. And that just brings into that. I'm not going to put a big bet on this one. You got to wait till our end of season at least. Tuesday's session ended with modest losses. It wasn't bad. Considering yields and oil being where they are, it wasn't bad. The S&P 500 down two-tenths of one percent. The Nasdaq down one-tenth of a percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average down three-tenths of a percent. And they recovered from their midday lows. I went out to get a piece of protein today, and I was like, oh, this isn't looking great. And I came back, and I was like, hey, you got a little bit better. Semiconductor strength and late afternoon lift, following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, while participation remained weak across the broader market. So I haven't listened to John Williams yet. There's five speakers today from the Federal Reserve talking, and I get transcripts of all the speeches. I'll take a look at it later, and I'll parse it. I'll tell you if there's anything that we need to know tomorrow. My morning podcast is chock full of stock news right now, because my afternoon podcast is you're going to learn in just a few minutes. It's three segments dedicated to CFP Chad Burton. Three segments yesterday, three segments today, three segments tomorrow. With that said, his content is a wealth of knowledge for people who are heading towards retirement or in retirement. I feel bad because a lot of my interviews now, being a man in my mid-fifties with a birthday coming up soon, I hate birthdays, never liked them.

You know, as a kid, I was horrible. I hated birthdays so much. I didn't like going to birthday parties. When I got an invite, I'd always ask my friend's mom. I'm like, what type of cake can you have? And I'd base my decision on whether I'd go or not. It was chocolate. Yes. Vanilla? Not so much. Not so much.

So stocks initially hovered near their flat lines before selling became more pronounced this morning. And then, like I said, late afternoon, things started to turn around. Oil settled 3.4% lower at $89.26 a barrel. The decline removed some of the pressure that elevated energy prices have recently placed on the market. Stocks derived relatively little benefit as elevated treasury yields remained a notable counterweight.

Looking for individual stocks right now. Okay, SanDisk up 16, Micron up 11 Apple down 9 So, man, Apple keeps getting right near that 340 level, and it says, nope, not ready to hit 350 yet. Great Google and Moogler down a buck 80 today. Nike, ugh. Talking about a stock, if I had bought Disney and Nike for dividends, and like, hey, stock will give me a little growth, the income will be great. Neither one of those have worked out in the last five to seven years.

Meta up another 23 today, because we're now starting to talk about Meta as an enterprise company. Now, enterprise to me and you, it probably means, oh, that's a company that's got 50 or more employees, and they need software. Meta says their enterprise is going to focus on lots and lots and lots of small companies, because the small companies are already on Facebook and Instagram.