Afternoon podcast 9-28-26

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Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved.

Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth, get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street, and the economy. Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:44)

Not greatest day on Wall Street, but it is the month of September and we are going to get through this. I promise you, we will start moving back to earning season in about two weeks. I think that will be a good thing for the market because instead of focusing on inflation, focusing on interest rates, focusing on geopolitics, we will focus on earnings. And last quarter was stunning and spectacular.

I'm not promising anything because the way yields are moving up, not where they are because they're actually lower than they were in 1996 But what we're looking for is something to break. People get nervous when interest rates move so fast, so far. You know, 100 basis points, 1% is not the craziest number, but when it's in a month, it stresses people out because we go, okay, if you were borrowing money 60 days ago and you looked at rates, you'd say, okay, I feel comfortable with that. Some people will get into adjustable rate mortgages. Okay, I'm good with that. And the rate adjusts as the yields just. And in a one-month period, your rate may just have changed from a $3,500 mortgage payment to a $4,500 mortgage payment and that's too much for you. I'm using hypothetical numbers, but you get the idea, things break. Property taxes go up because borrowing for counties, for cities, for states, for the federal government goes up. And it's not free money. At some point in time, that has to be covered by somebody. Or when new debt is issued, it's someone says, pay up because you're not you're not living up to your end of the bargaining and keeping everything balanced in your county, your city, your state, your government. So that's what's happening right now. I am not freaked out. If I die today, I want you to stay invested in the stock market. I want you to manage your risk better. In case you're in something that's losing money. No.

No. In case you're in something with too much debt, probably not a good idea, or that should start becoming your riskiest stock. Whereas maybe last year, your riskiest stock was a company that was losing money. It's a different profile. So today, the major average has finished broadly lower. And for the record, CFP Chad Birchins can be in segment two, three, and four today. That means we have a seminar coming up. I do want you to attend. And I do want you to listen to what he has to say, because it's very different content than what I present to you. And he will be on a couple more times before the event. So the major average has finished broadly lower.

Sharp swings in crude oil, elevated treasury yields, and shifting headlines around the US-Iran negotiations. I'm now at the point of cynicism where I guess on Friday or Saturday, Iran's like, hey, we have a peace proposal. We could open up the Strait of Hormuz in seven days, not 30 days, like we said before, seven days. And Trump didn't say, you're fired, he just said, no deal.

Did I expect a deal to be signed? I did not expect it to be signed. He knows what's good and bad, and he's running on his timetable. Something to do with after the elections. The elections don't go his way. Would there be a strong enough Congress to say no to any more bombing of Iran or the Strait of Hormuz? It depends, and that's one of the reasons Wall Street gets a little bit nervous.

I predict the market will be near record highs at the end of the year based on earnings. I'm not pounding the table to impress you or to go out on the limb. It's just, I've seen this all before. Oil and interest rates provided the primary macro headwinds.

Crude surged more than 3% today to $95 a barrel during the morning after President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal. The 10-year note yield climbed to 5.26%. Those two moves fueled broad selling that briefly pushed losses in the major averages towards about 1%.