Afternoon podcast 9-24-26

Rob Black (0:00)

Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved.

SPEAKER_2 (0:31)

Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth, get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street, and the economy. Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:44)

I'm Rob Black. You can find me online at robblackshow.com. I always have events coming up. I'd love to see you at one. Today, we saw diplomacy at its best. Xi Jinping announced in a meeting with Trump that China would send two pandas to the Atlanta Zoo. Panda diplomacy. It's what I would refer to as soft powder. It's a cornerstone of the US-China relations. Zoos pay big money to get the fur balls on loan, which draws millions of fans. I'm not a fan of panda bears. They're bears. Bears are deadly. I saw that a hockey player for the Pittsburgh Penguins. His father died in Russia. A bear bit his head. Now, that's enough for me to say. I'm not going to trust those pandas. I know it wasn't a panda bear that did it, but not a big fan of pandas, not a big fan of bears.

But I do like the diplomacy side. I would love to see something positive come out of the presidency and the administration in the next 24 hours. The major average has recovered from a sharp morning decline to finish little changed. Crude oil retreated substantially from its session high, and it alleviated one of the pressures that weighs on the stock market these days. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ ended flat. I would call that a big rally, because at one point in time, I was like, oh, so Tumor's not looking so good. I covered my eyes and I did my news segment this morning. I'm like, yeah, so Tumor's not looking so good. I don't want to look at it. But then I remembered we're only one and a half percent from all time highs or less on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.

Russell 2000 was down one tenth of a percent, so it really wasn't that bad of a day.

We had that weaker start today. Oil surged above $96 a barrel. Treasure yields remained at multi-year highs. The combination weighed particularly heavy on growth stocks, sending the NASDAQ firmly lower at the open. The tone improved considerably. There was a Reuters report that indicated potential phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is being discussed. Oil backed away from its highs, easing concerns that another sharp increase in energy prices would add to inflation pressures.

Treasury yields remained another significant headwind, with an attempted recovery in treasuries ultimately failing amidst concerns about additional Fed tightening. Elevated government debt levels and another soft treasury option. New York Fed President John Williams. No, no, not the guy who wrote the Star Wars themes. Different John. It'd be cool if it was that John Williams, but it's not.

John Williams is an FOMC member. He said it is reasonable to expect another rate increase this year. Well, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, also a voting member, said that some modest further tightening may be warranted if conditions evolve as she expects. So does the count from Sesame would say, one, one, one Fed official. No, no, two, two, two Fed officials think the rates can go higher this year. And they're the ones who said it. So here's the damnation game. Never play poker with the devil.

This is playing poker with the devil. If the Fed hikes interest rates, it's going to worsen the interest expense problem, since so much borrowing is at the short end. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it worsens inflation.

What do you do? The old phrase, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Do it, do it. You know, it's kind of interesting. I realized this today, and I almost gave myself a pat on the back. I became annihilated generational wealth from age 20 to my mid 50s. And now I can put it all in a five year, 10 year, 30 year treasury, and like be well off. I'm getting good rates. But what's funny, and I'm not talking funny, ha ha, I'm talking a different kind of funny. And what I mean by that is, where the 10 year is now, it's actually below its historic norm, average in the last 30 years. And I'm acting like all high and mighty, like I'm gonna put some money in a 10 year treasury and ha ha ha, beat the markets.