Afternoon podcast 9-10-26

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved.

SPEAKER_2 (0:31)

Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth. Get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street and the economy. Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:43)

I'm Rob Black. We had a down day on the market. Count them up. That's four in a row. September's kind of living up to its reputation, is it not?

There's some winners and some losers on the market, but the overall trend was negative. The SP 500 down a little bit more than 1.5, 1%. Kind of where it was all day long. The Dow Jones Industrial Average down 60 basis points. That's 6 tenths of 1%. The NASDAQ down 65 basis points. It's about two thirds of 1%. And the Russell 2000 down just about 1%. Bitcoin was down 1.3%. Crude oil was the winner winner chicken dinner, if you will today, up 7.2%. Up $7, $103 a barrel. Taking a look at the Treasuries. This was the story of the day. It's not a sexy story. It's not a story that you're gonna be happy with. But the Treasury yields on the 30 year Treasury hit 5.36%. I've got enough money to last till the day I die, and I've got some cash. Right now, do I want to put money in a Treasury yield? Do you need 5.3%? Or do I want to put it in the stock market that looks like you can have a 5% to 10% correction any day now?

The 30 year is attractive for a sit on your money like a chicken sits on its head. Egg to hatch. I know I might kind of make some metaphors, maybe. Got to be really careful because you make some metaphor and you're done in this city.

Ten year treasuries at 4.94%, which is too high. I've been honest with you since I've been on the air for over 30 years, and one of the very first tenants of my business is you buy bonds when the treasury is over 4.5%, you buy stocks when the ten year treasury is under 4%, and the further it falls below, the more you buy stocks, and the further it goes above 4.5%, the more you buy stocks. 30 year bond hits 5.35% its highest level in 19 years. This comes right after the hot PPI data showed producer prices rising faster than expected, adding to inflation fears. It's also happening the same day that US. Treasury tripled its bond by back to 6 billion, an effort meant to bring down yields. It's not working. Scott Bessent is showing me that he's in it for the money, for the grift, because he doesn't know what he's doing. Jeffrey Gunlock, who is the bond king, referred to Bessent said, Bessent said, I am the house. Bet against the house if you want. And Jeffrey Gunlock said, they're betting against the house, and they're winning. So what's amazing about the global bond selloff is how many people are saying rising yields are about strong growth. When you think about rising yields in Japan, France, Italy, and the UK, are they about growth, or is it just the United States? We are in a global growth shock of debt, and it's real. You look at Japan, Germany, the United States, the UK, Italy, France, Australia, Canada, Switzerland. The cost to borrow money is going up for obvious reasons that we've borrowed too much in the world is the conclusion for now. Ain't that something? So the Dow tumbled 300 points to notch a four-day drop. The Iran war is raging on. Seven months we're into now. The Republican midterm convention kind of looked like a joke with its attendance, but America is angry. Fight the power, if you will, seems to be what I'm hearing much more than I'm one way or the other.

High beta chip stocks that have led the bull market were lower today, showing us what happens when interest rates rise. Some of the biggest growers and fastest growers like Intel and Micron were down 5.6% and this is 4% equally. Alphabet and Microsoft finish up the day by less than 1%.

Apple shares surged 3.6% following a successful launch of the company's first foldable smartphone. What I'm hearing again and again is people want it. I'm going to have two segments with CFP Chad Burton on today because we have a seminar coming up on Saturday. It's financial planning, wealth preservation, retirement planning in Lafayette. 10 o'clock to noon, sign up at robblackshow.com. So we saw a tame wholesale inflation report today that failed to allay fears coalescing around the higher rates and oil prices. August's producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, rose a seasonally adjusted four-tenths of a percent in line with expectations, but on an annual basis, it rose at a 5.4%. That's a grotesque handle. That's bad. That means inflation is there, and interest rates should be higher. Does Warsh have the cojones to do what he needs to do in front of Donald Trump and raise interest rates after all the crap that Trump piled on Jerome Powell?