Afternoon podcast 10-16-26

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Welcome to the afternoon Rob Black Show podcast, a guaranteed human podcast, which can also be heard on AM 1220 KDOW weekdays at 5 p.m. and on 860 AM The Answer weeknights at 11 p.m. The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision, all rights reserved. Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth.

SPEAKER_2 (0:35)

Get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street, and the economy.

SPEAKER_1 (0:41)

Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:44)

Today's market started off strong, but it had big reversal down. There's some big headlines, like something extraordinary coming out of Tesla with a roadster. It wowed with compressed air thrusters. But it probably won't drive an earnings beat. I'll tell you why in the third segment of the show today. PepsiCo just lost the KFC US business going to Coca-Cola. Back in the 1990s, 1980s, that would have been a story, but today, it just doesn't feel as much. I'm going to talk about Apple in the third segment as well. Their orders for their new phone are doing remarkably well. In fact, if you want one, you're not going to get one now until late January at the earliest.

Emory stocks have entered another bear market. Micron's down 4% today, Sanitas down 5%.

Leading the AI infrastructure unwind day, Microsoft's down 2.6%, Amazon's down 2%.

Meta down 3.6%. Interesting note, one of the worst companies in the last 10 years is up, Nike, on a down day that tells you something. People are a little bit spooked right now, for sure, on AI financing. Chipmakers, drawing the market's lower day, the Vanna X semiconductor ETF, ticker symbol SMH, lost over 1%.

Big declines in Micron, AMD, Sandisk, and others. CoreWeave, a NeoCloud company, it's seen its total debt rise to more than $51 billion, down another 10%. This week, it's down 23%.

I said at the event last night that I don't own any companies with extreme debt or debt that doesn't match up with cash flow in better times. And again, I'm not smarter than you. I just manage my risk on this one. Stocks weakened into the midday. Everything's down. The NASDAQ, the Russell, the S&P, the Dow. Same character and AI-related selling remains at the central pressure point, but the retreat has broadened beyond the largest growth stocks as the session progressed. Cybersecurity software stocks, notable laggards, names like CrowdStrike down 6.9%.

They were amongst the more prominent losers of the day. Without a specific news catalyst to account for its outsized loss. Apple up slightly. But again, it seems to do well when AI does poorly as a group. It's interesting to watch because Apple hasn't put a lot of money into AI servers and semiconductors. But people are excited about the iPhone duo, so that enthusiasm is pouring over to the stock. Sold out within minutes. Vaccine shares came under sharp pressure earlier today. Moderna down 9.6%. Novavax down 12.5%, some profit-taking and valuation concerns following substantial rallies.

The reversal in a previously resilient health care area together with the Russell 2000s declined underscores that investors are reducing exposure beyond a narrow group of expensive growth names. Moderna, Novavax, Vaxsite, and BioNTech, all lower today, selling off with weakness, appearing consistent with profit-taking and valuation concerns. Now, keep of note, Moderna is up 240% since mid-August. Novavax is up 45%. There's been a lot of enthusiasm surrounding cancer vaccine developments and reports of an NIH, National Institute of Health-Backed Research Initiative, which has helped fuel the advance, leaving shares vulnerable as investors reassess how quickly those opportunities could translate into commercial revenue. Moderna's especially steep advance has raised the stakes for upcoming cancer vaccine data, leaving shares vulnerable to profit-taking as investors weigh its oncology potential against the time spending and execution required to generate meaningful revenue. The broader retreat, therefore, appears more consistent with investors reducing exposure after substantial gains than a newly confirmed setback across the group. Although buy-in tech, ticker symbol BNTX, also faces some company-specific pressures on the week's disappointing cancer immunotherapy trial. Elsewhere in the world of money, truest financial, up 1.19 percent, ticker symbol TFC, and Regions Financial, up fractions better than expected earnings we are in earnings season. Ten-year charging note is just up three basis points today, sitting around 5.12 percent. It's still 12 basis points lower for the week. The retreat in growth, high beta, and small cap stocks, despite the weekly decline, suggest valuation concerns and uncertainty about the eventual effect of elevated rates on demand, and earnings remains important. Today's data kept both inflation and growth considerations in focus. The import-export price index for September showed a notable price pressure.