Afternoon podcast 10-14-26

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

This is New Focus on Wealth with Rob Black, taking a look at what happened in the stock market today. You can find out more at robblack.com.

SPEAKER_2 (0:09)

The views and opinions expressed in the program are not necessarily those of this radio station or its sponsors, and should not be construed as legal tax or investment advice. You should always consult the appropriate advisor before making any financial decision. All rights reserved.

SPEAKER_3 (0:26)

Now, new focus on wealth, new focus on wealth, get a new focus on personal finance, wealth management, Wall Street and the economy. Now, Rob Black.

Rob Black (0:39)

October 14th, Wednesday, 2026, the S&P 500 closed down 1.09% at 77.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1 third at 71%, down 166 points to 51,503. The Nasdaq down 1.88%, down 511 points, 26.692. That feels a little more serious. As does the Russell 2000, down 1.93%, down 53 points to 2729 The 10-year treasury didn't do a lot, but there was a lot of inflation numbers to consider today.

Surging gas prices pushed CPI inflation to 3.7% in September. The Federal Reserve is watching. Will they raise interest rates this month, knowing that in three weeks from now, the elections will be over? The midterms, will they chance sending the market into a tailspin or a big jump up by their decisions, or will they just stay on the sidelines?

But gas prices are a real thing. There's a lot of inflation out there, and consumer prices jumped 3.7% year over year. Energy was up 5.2% for the month. Gasoline was up 9.1% for the month. Now the good news is that it probably won't be up 9% for the next month. We'll start using less of it. Our president will hear the noise. He'll start saying nicer things to Iran. Maybe something gets done. Maybe it doesn't. But year over year, food prices up 2.5% a suite. That's not as bad. Shelter prices are up though. Used cars prices are up apparel up 3.4% year over year.

Social Security announced a 3.6% COLA. Now when you say COLA, you're like Coca-Cola, I like soda. For 2027, no. COLA means cost of living adjustment tied towards their numbers. But still the average check is 2,087 bucks. And like the people I'm talking to right now, let's talk to you a couple of different groups. The people in their 20s and 30s who are working jobs that are making 20 to 30 bucks an hour and just don't have enough to save for retirement. Your retirement, you're looking at living off roughly 2,087 bucks a month. Your parents will be dead. Your friends will be married and off. Is that enough to live off of?

$23,000 a year? Now again, it will adjust for inflation, but not that much. And what if it starts to run out to the point where they're like, no, we want you to work to 70, or we want you to work to 72, or 75

You can't count on these numbers. They're not good in the first place.

What else is out there? Netflix is going to cut 1,000 employees, and the biggest workforce reduction since 2022 Stock went down on the news, didn't go up. But it was a down day for tech. I saw Target did okay. I saw Airbnb did okay. But there wasn't a lot of winners out there today, to be quite honest with you. Google started in the green, went to the red. Apple started way up, and then ended up only up one half, one percent. It was up two percent earlier. It's okay. I'm not gonna jump up and down, but it's okay. So what happened today? Ladies and gentlemen, I am here to tell you, don't forget to have a big event coming up tomorrow night, 630 to 830 I'll do one afternoon show tomorrow, and then do my podcast for Friday. But please note, a lot of content's gonna be given at the event. The stock market finished broadly lower today. Accelerated inflation, raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Again, the fact that it was the energy and gas that were the highest mid-single digits, I can't see that lasting.

SPEAKER_3 (4:42)

But I could be wrong.

Rob Black (4:45)

There was persistent weakness day in SemiConductor and other tech stocks, which weighed heavily on major averages.

The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike for the month of October, jumping from 22% to nearly 50-50 today. Again, that's not going to come out for a couple of weeks.

We could have, but it's coming. Do they do anything or they don't? The Wall Street will, they'll be pushing their hands back and forth. They'll be stressed about it. They'll be stressed probably until the elections. Anxiety of which way is this going to break, left or right, up or down? The yields on the 3, 5 and 7 year notes reached fresh 2026 highs before steadily retreating throughout the session today. The recovery coincided with a moderation rate hike expectations which moved back towards yesterday's levels as the day progressed, with the idea that people like me are saying, there's no way they're going to do it right before the elections.