A GIFT TO ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION (Guest: Chase Taylor)

Chase Taylor (0:04)

Hit it.

Patrick Ceresna (0:05)

It's Friday, September 11th, 2026, episode 300 I'm Patrick Ceresna. This week joining us is Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro. We're going to dig into the charts, take a look at what's driving these markets right now, and see what the technicals may be telling us about what's going to come next. So Kevin is away this week. Chase, thank you for pinch hitting on a short notice.

Chase Taylor (0:29)

Yeah, you bet, I'm away next week, so this was perfect timing.

Patrick Ceresna (0:32)

All right. So let me just quickly give the disclaimer, and let's jump into the charts. So nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in this show. Side effects of too much market huddle may include Bascent Buyback Dysfunction, Triple-digit Crude Trauma, and Inflation Reacceleration Rash. Ugh, you don't want to have any of those, bud.

Anyway, let's dive into these charts and have a look at what's going on. So, Chase, I wanted to really bring you on and pick your brain about this stuff.

But, you know, normally we start with equity markets and things like that. But really, thematically, we have to go straight to the pressure point source of where things have been really building. And that's been the reacceleration of the trend in crude oil. Now, I rewind back to February, March. Instantaneously, oil goes to repricing to $120 a barrel. Everyone was convinced $200 was in the cards. And then, we had one of the most spectacular positioning washouts, June, that basically caught all the traders that were certain that the outcome of this trade or her moves fundamentally and tight markets was going to cause oil to go up and those positions were washed out. And quietly now, oil has been creeping higher, like the oil shortages, the inventory drawdowns, all these things are actually legitimately, now a thing, and it's certainly sending shocks to the market. We'll talk about the impact oil is having on the other markets, but let's start off by just getting your view on what's happening in oil, what's your view, where is it going, how do you size this up?

Chase Taylor (2:30)

Yeah, so speaking of, I think I have a rash from that washout.

I think one of the craziest things I've ever seen in markets was the fact that we literally round tripped all the way back to where we came from before the war, despite the obvious loss of all the production. That was one of the craziest things I have ever and will ever see. And it was like one of those in real time where you're like, this is pretty momentous and historic.

Patrick Ceresna (2:56)

You mean as crazy as negative crude oil prices?

Chase Taylor (3:01)

In some way, maybe crazier.

But now that you're at 100 bucks, you look back at the fact that we got back into the 60s, and it's crazy how big of a gift that was to anyone paying attention. And as our buddy, Paolo Macro, kind of coined this as, it's almost like a second mouse gets the cheese trade.

And if the war doesn't end, it's going to be a third mouse gets a Lambo trade, I think. So hopefully, it doesn't because of the obvious effects, if it doesn't. But this whole thing is pretty simple. Like, you got washed out, obviously, because of the MOU, but more to the point, you didn't keep going at 120 because of big SPR releases and the fact that China backed away from buying in a way that literally nobody saw coming. It was massive the way they stepped away. And they're just nibbling now. Like, they have increased imports, but it's not, they're no where near to where they came from. So the fact that you're back at 100 without that, like if they jump back in at pre-war levels, then, I mean, we would be in the clouds very, very quickly. So this is a fragile trade. Obviously, the Houthis now control the Bab al-Mandab straight and the Iranians at least have control of the straight form moves. So if Iran wants this price higher, they can get it higher. So as long as this war is going on, I think beatings will continue until it's not on anymore.

Patrick Ceresna (4:29)

What's your over under that they recognize that their strongest positioning is when Trump is most vulnerable right before the midterm elections? And would it be pushing their luck if they kept negotiations past the elections where they simply don't have a deadline from which, and then they could drag things on, like, do you think that there's a possibility that this kind of, they use this leverage point as the point to get the deal that they think they can get?