997: Mailbag - The Broncos Backfield, Brock Bowers Fear, and More

JJ Zachariason (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast, with your host, JJ Zachariason.

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 997 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings is giving all customers a can't-miss offer. Draft one, get one. Enter a lineup in the $15 million Best Ball contest for just $20, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week. Across the whole season, every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count toward your quest for a share of $15 million. As you know, I'm drafting over there and I'm documenting things with Becoming a Best Ball Bro, so you can use the information from that show to help you out as well. So download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your $20 Best Ball lineup to play for a share of $15 million and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that $15 million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York. Call 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY to 467369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. 18 plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void wear prohibited. One per customer. Enter the best ball with $15 million headliner contest by 9-4-25 to get one bonus entry. $20 entry fee required. Reward expires in 30 days. See terms at draftkings.com/nfldashbestdashball. Sponsored by DK. It's a mailbag day. Let's get to these questions.

The first question is an email from Curtis. It's something that I'm sure many of you are curious about, but Curtis says, hey, JJ, love the show. Thanks. With JK Dobbins now in Denver, does RJ Harvey take a big hit? It seems like many believe this will just make Harvey more affordable and an easier draft selection, but will Dobbins play a bigger role than many are expecting? Could Dobbins be the player that we actually want to target? Thanks and keep up the good work, Curtis. Okay, so I've talked about the Broncos backfield a bit this off season and how Sean Payton has just been unbelievable for running backs in fantasy football through the years, especially through the air. Since 2011, Payton's teams haven't ranked lower than sixth and running back target share in a single season. A big reason I was bullish on RJ Harvey at least in 2025 was that his competition for some of that receiving work was Jaleel McLaughlin, who hasn't been like a staple for them as a pass catcher during his two years there, and then Audrick Estime. Estime was someone that my prospect model didn't really love because he's not a pass catcher at all. Now JK Dobbins gets thrown into the mix, and to me, Dobbins is tougher competition than Estime McLaughlin. I mean, just last year, on a per game basis, his target share was a little over 10%, and that was in an offense that generally doesn't prefer to throw to running backs. Now with any sort of running back rotation, you have to think about the roles that these dudes are gonna play. RJ Harvey, a rookie, he may not be the best player to have on the field in obvious passing down situations. He has questionable pass protection, and this was actually addressed by Sean Payton earlier in May. Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post, he tweeted, Payton on the RJ Harvey slash Pass Pro conversation, quote, I know the question is, is he a three down back? And then Payton continued and he said, well, he's gonna play on third down, but he can play on third down where the tight end is in protection. There's a lot we can do to suit his strengths. Basically, I don't think the Broncos are all of a sudden not gonna try to get Harvey the ball in the receiving game and get him in space. Harvey's still the most explosive back on that team by far. Bow nicks, he's not afraid to check it down. In Sean Payton's offenses, they'll utilize their running backs as receivers, as pass catchers. Harvey missing more third down plays, that's not even a lock, but if he does, it doesn't just completely torpedo his projection. We still want the early down deployment for these guys. He can still catch passes on not third down. But like no sane projection system had RJ Harvey forecasted as a bell cow in 2025 before this JK Dobbins thing happened. That's not how Sean Payton operates. My thinking is that this Dobbins move really makes Audrick Estimé irrelevant, which is weird because Sean Payton in late May said this about Estimé, quote, I don't want to say the grade was incomplete, but they just didn't have enough. He's a back that requires enough touches. He's going to get those opportunities. It's the most Sean Payton thing of all time. But I'm not sure how else this would go down. You don't sign Dobbins to not dress him on game days, which means Sundays will come down to Jaleel McLaughlin or Audrick Estimé. And McLaughlin is some of the team is trusted and something that they've loved since he entered the league. And he's already getting some love out of Denver this year. My guess is that this is a three-headed monster without injury, where we've got RJ Harvey leading the way and seeing the most receiving work because he's so explosive. Dobbins maybe sees 40 or so fewer rush attempts than Harvey on the projections front and then fewer targets as well. And then Jaleel McLaughlin is kind of a true change of pace back. He's just kind of sprinkled in. But there's more than enough to go around. This is an offense that should use their running backs quite a bit. So, that leaves me with about 185 rush attempts for Harvey and around 65 to 70 targets. He should be ranked as a low-end RB2 in my opinion. Because there's still upside there. And I think Dobbins can be considered in like that low-end RB3, high-end RB4 range. Both guys have contingent upside with injury. So, overall, I hope this lowers RJ Harvey's ADP. Because while he did take a slight hit in projection and his ceiling outcome may not look as good, there's a good chance the drop in ADP is more significant than it should be. But we'll see. This next question is from at LukeAngelica1 on Twitter. It says, how do you feel about Tony Pollard given his approximate 11% target share and 0.88 yards per outrun last year? Less bullish of him as a middle-round running back? How about versus Tajay Spears, who's at about a 9.5% share with a 1.45 yards per outrun? Thanks. So I'm assuming this question stems from the episode earlier in the week on using yards per outrun to help us solve the middle-round running back dilemma that we face each year. If you haven't listened to that episode yet, I'd hit pause on this one and go back. Because it's a fun one, especially if you're a nerd like me. When I was researching all that stuff for the draft guide, Pollard was one of the players that popped into my head. He had about a 12% target share per game rate last year, but he wasn't very effective per route run, as you noted. I actually have him at 0.79 yards per route run. That comes from PFF. Spears was at 1.34, significantly higher. I actually do think the Titans wanted to use Tajay Spears more than they actually used him last year. He couldn't stay healthy, and we saw him do a little bit for fantasy purposes down the stretch without Pollard. I don't think he's like some stud running back, who's an obvious league winner. But I do think he's capable of being a good change-of-pace player who could steal a lot of receiving work. I mean, Tajay Spears, in his two seasons in the league, he's gotten to a 9.8% target share per game rate, and in his rookie year, he was at 14.8%. There's nothing wrong with that at all. Historically, the players that are in Tony Pollard's yards per route run tier, and that's previous season yards per route run, they're not as scary as the guys who are in that Ramandre Stevenson, Jordan Mason and Chuba Hubbard grouping. But they still don't hit double digit percentage target shares at a really strong rate at all. So keep that in mind. I would anticipate Pollard taking a slight step back in terms of his overall usage this year. I mean, he had 260 attempts last season. That's not going to be super, super easy for him to repeat. And I do think Spears gets a lot closer to Pollard's receiving work this season. So I'm slightly, slightly lower than the market as a result of all of this.