982: NFL Draft - A Questionable Quarterback Class

Jim Sannes (0:02)

This is The Late-Round Podcast with your host JJ Zachariason.

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 982 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. I do this series of episodes every year. I bring on a guest, and we talk about the quarterback running back and wide receiver classes for that particular upcoming NFL draft. So it's three episodes with three separate guests. Some of you may be wondering why this isn't just a Late-Round Perspectives episode instead. And the answer is because I'm talking about a very specific topic here. Perspectives, that's a conversation that just jumps all over the place. The Late-Round Podcast is either a solo show with just me, or if I have guests on, we're focused on something super specific. Like today, today we're focused on this year's quarterback class. And the we is yours truly and my longtime friend, Jim Sannes. Jim and I worked together for a long time at Numberfire and FanDuel. He's hopped on the show for many years now to talk about quarterbacks, because he has a really interesting quarterback model that's done quite well in the past. Just last year, he was telling everyone that Jaden Daniels was the QB1 in that draft class. Jim and I sat down and had a quick conversation about his quarterback model and this year's draft class. I think you guys are going to love it, especially when you hear who his model likes best this year. It's kind of a surprise. So let's get right to it. Here's my conversation with Mr. Jim Sannes.

So Jim, for the listeners who aren't aware of your quarterback prospecting work and the model that you've developed, can you sort of describe it and what goes into it?

Jim Sannes (1:52)

Yeah, so I had two separate models. One is a pre-draft model. One is a post-draft model. The post-draft one obviously influenced heavily by draft capital. The pre-draft one, honestly, I kind of used for like betting, like NFL draft props when I could, RIP Illinois. So I used it for betting. So I kept like draft capital out of there, but honestly I've wound up liking that model more because it looks at just the player's age, experience and efficiency. Nothing else, no expected draft capital, nothing like that. Literally just their collegiate resumes. And what you're looking for ideally is a quarterback prospect who is young, experienced and efficient. And you don't get a lot of guys who check all three boxes. In fact, it's a very small list we'll talk about later on. But generally, players who are higher ranked in that model that blends those things together do tend to both go higher in the draft and be better as pros compared to contemporaries taken in similar spots in the draft. So if we be more specific looking from 2010 on, we have looking at just first round quarterbacks in 2010 on, 14 of those guys have finished inside the top 10 in total EPA by number fires metrics in one third of their qualified season. So 14 like star, really good first round picks. Those guys have been on average in the 82nd percentile of the pre-draft model. And that includes Josh Allen and Jordan Love, who were very low, which tells you how high up the other guys in that subset are. The less successful first round picks have been in the 70th percentile. So the 70th for the less successful guys, 82nd percentile for the hits. It's a pretty big gap. And in general, if you look at the specific buckets, the hits are younger, more experienced, and more efficient than their counterparts on average. Then I've always looked at the lens of first round picks because most successful quarterbacks are first rounders. But it's true for late round guys too, honestly. Again, if you look at the average successful non-first round picks since 2010, they've been in the 74th percentile of the pre-draft model, whereas the average day two or day three pick is in the 49th percentile. Now, it's seven guys because there aren't a lot of successful non-first round picks, but Jalen Hurts ranks number two overall among all quarterbacks in the history of the model. Russell Wilson is the only other non-first rounder inside the top 10 Both those guys are now Super Bowl champions, which is pretty good there. So I do think that prioritizing these buckets, young, efficient, experienced, is good even when you're comparing to players who had similar spots in the draft, which is why I continue to value it and have grown to like the pre-draft model more than I used to initially when I built it.