962: 10 Trends for Week 16

JJ Zachariason (0:11)

What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zachariason. In this episode, 962 of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the trends this week, I want to make sure you're checking out Underdog. If your fantasy football season is over, or if you're wanting to get some more action, head to Underdog. You can draft teams for playoff contests right now, and you don't need a huge bankroll to play. There's the mitten, for instance. You can join that right now for just $5 per entry. If you haven't played yet at Underdog, make sure to use promo code LATEROUND when you sign up. That'll get you a nice deposit offer once you get going. That's underdogfantasy.com, promo code LATEROUND.

The first trend this week has to do with a transaction that I almost made for the 15 Transaction Show. But Zacherts left Washington's week 15 game early with a concussion. Rookie Ben Sinnott was the one who stepped in and ran the most routes for Washington. He had 25 routes run vs. John Bates 10, Bates being the other tight end in the offense. Sinnott's been really inefficient this year in limited action. He has a.28 yards per route run rate, and I did not misspeak there, that's real. He's got 28 yards on 100 routes run according to PFF. But he could get more run if Zach Ertz is out, so he's someone to watch. Anthony Richardson has been horrible for the players in the Colts offense this year. He's now thrown 19 or more times in 9 games this season. He's finished with better than a 50% completion rate in just one of those games. Now that obviously hurts the pass catchers, but as I've said before, it's also really hurting Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had his lowest route share of the season in week 15 He's now gone 4 straight games without a double digit percentage target share. Jonathan Taylor, one of the most dynamic players in football, ignoring the drop ball at the goal line stuff, but Jonathan Taylor hasn't combined 5 targets over his last 4 games. Those are all 4 games with Anthony Richardson. It's really tough to trust the Colts right now. James Cook had a nice week 15 against the Lions. He scored a pair of touchdowns and he ran for over 100 yards. His usage though just continues to be kind of wild. He's now gone 4 straight games with a sub 50% snap share. From week 1 through week 10, he was below the 50% snap share mark just once. Now, it hasn't totally impacted his bottom line, but his usage actually has changed over his last 4 games. He's averaging 10.8 rush attempts and 2.5 targets per game. From weeks 1 to 10, that rush attempts number was almost 4 attempts higher. He was getting more raw targets too. Now, he can finish the season strong, given how well this Bills offense is playing right now. But there's definitely some volatility there. Now, speaking of the Bills, part of the reason you can't trust their pass catchers is simple predictability. Amari Cooper in week 14, so 2 games ago, he had a 63% route participation. Not super high, but it was at least usable. He ended the day with a 38% target share. In week 15, Cooper's route participation was just 42%. He didn't see a single target. Cooper's now seen just a 53% route share since he was traded to Buffalo. His target share per game rate is 14%. There's literally no difference between Amari Cooper and a lot of waiver-wire wide receivers. The only pass catcher that I would trust in this offense is Khalil Shaqir.

Najee Harris is coming off a game against the Eagles where he saw just a 34% snap share the lowest of his season. His 50% running back rush share was also a season low. And because the Steelers ran so few plays, Harris had just 6 rush attempts. I'm definitely nervous about Harris in the fantasy playoffs over the next two weeks, but I've been nervous about Harris in the fantasy playoffs. He was a 15 transactions sell for multiple weeks over the last couple of months. Now he gets Baltimore and Kansas City to close out the fantasy season. I can't say that brings me a whole lot of confidence. He's probably going to be just a touchdown dependent player, which is largely what he's been this year anyway. Davante Adams is absolutely destroying fantasy football right now. He scored 26 and 43 PPR points over his last two games, but his usage has been really good ever since he got to New York. Even if the results haven't always been there. According to PFF's expected fantasy points formula, since week 7, which was Adams' first game as a jet, only Jamar Chase, Pukka Nakua and CD. Lamb have a higher expected fantasy points per game average than Adams does. Now a lot of teams probably had a hard time making the playoffs with Davante Adams, but if you've got him, you've got to play him at this point.